Archive for February, 2007

Interesting take on Mills

Labelscar, one of the blogs Retail Traffic profiled in December, wonders if Mills imminent takeover means the death of Tewksbury Mills.

Again, of course, I’m biased. If you want to read Mills’ (equally biased!) FAQ, you can still get to it on their site, as well as a few other pages. At this point, my guess is that this may be the end of the Tewksbury Mills proposal, but given our comprehensive coverage of the New England region, it’s interesting to note the mall that never was, or the mall that may still be.

Top Owners & Managers 2007

Retail Traffic is conducting its annual survey of the retail real estate industry’s top owners and managers. The information obtained in this survey will be published in our April 2007 issue. We will rank the top U.S. owners and top managers of retail properties. Please complete this online survey by March 5. Alternatively, you can download this pdf and fax it to me at 913-514-9002.

For answers to any of your questions, you may contact me at 212-204-4207 or via email.

U.S. Real Estate Index Futures To Trade on Chicago Exchange | The Real Estate Bloggers

Real Estate Bloggers has a piece about a new U.S. Real Estate futures index that will begin trading n the Chicago Exchange. The index will focus on REITs.

Loan Originations Hit New Record in 2006

NREI Online has a longer report about the 2006 volume of commercial mortgages. In total, it looks like the industry hit a new record, topping 2005. Retail volumes, though, were down.

The good news for mortgage bankers is flowing as fast as the capital these days.The good news for mortgage bankers is flowing as fast as the capital these days. Commercial/multifamily mortgage originations rose 3% in the fourth quarter of 2006 over the same period a year earlier, and total annual volume is expected to surpass the previous record of $201 billion set in 2005, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The combination of an abundance of capital, improving property markets and innovative financing vehicles such as commercial-debt obligations (CDOs) are boosting lending volume to unprecedented heights, says Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s senior director of commercial and multifamily research.

“There are a number of fronts parked over the commercial/multifamily world that are leading us to some pretty calm seas,” says Woodwell. The researcher’s remarks came during a media luncheon at the Marriott hotel in downtown San Diego on Monday as part of MBA’s annual commercial/multifamily convention. The event has drawn about 5,000 attendees.

A Bidding War for Mills?

The Mills Corp. saga has taken another turn. Just when it seemed the final chapter was being written, with Brookfield Asset Management coming in with an offer to buy the company, now another bid has emerged. Simon Property Group and Farallon Partners have presented Mills with a new offer, upping Brookfield’s earlier bid.

Details are available on Retail Traffic’s home page:

All last summer, Mills Corp. languished, unable to attract a buyer to pull the troubled mall developer from the edge of bankruptcy. Finally, in January, by which time the company faced an urgent need for working capital, it nailed down a $7.5 billion deal with Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management.

On Monday, that deal was trumped by a joint bid by Simon Property Group and hedge fund Farallon Capital Management and, analysts say, that could flesh out more suitors. Suddenly, the Chevy Chase, Md.-base Mills looks like a hot property—at least relatively. Morningstar analyst Akash Dave and RBC Capital Markets’ Richard Moore both say that Mills might fetch twice the $7 billion Simon/Farallon offer (the deal includes $4.9 billion in assumed debt, vs. $5.1 billion suggested by Brookfield’s offer).

Dave expects that other mall operators will try to beat Simon, the nation’s number one mall owner, to the Mills portfolio, which currently consists of 19 Mills Landmark Centers and 20 Twenty-First Century Retail and Entertainment Centers. He also expects Brookfield, which is using the Mills deal to catapult into the North American retail sector, to counter with a sweetened bid of its own.

Originations on Retail Loans Down

The Mortgage Bankers Association is still computing final numbers, but preliminary results indicate that loan volume on retail real estate fell in the fourth quarter of 2006.

According to an MBA statement:

Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers’ loan originations in the fourth quarter were three percent higher than during the same quarter last year. … The increase in commercial/multifamily lending activity during the fourth quarter was driven by increases in originations for hotel properties, offices, industrial and multifamily. When compared to the fourth quarter of 2005, the overall increase included a 20 percent increase in loans for hotel properties, an 8 percent increase in loans for office properties, a 3 percent increase in loans for industrial properties and a 2 percent increase in loans for multifamily. Lending for retail properties saw a 5 percent decrease and health care properties saw a decrease of 7 percent.

Insurance Questions Hang Over Commercial Real Estate

As part of Retail Traffic’s continuing conference coverage, we will be providing updates from this week’s CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2007 being hosted by the Mortgage Bankers Association in San Diego.

One of the hot topics at the show is insurance. This year marks the expiration of the latest version of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act. Beyond that, there are also concerns about the availability of wind and flood insurance—especially with disputes and hefty payouts still being resolved from 2005’s killer hurricane season.

There have been a lot of conflicts concerning the damage caused by hurricanes and whether it was caused by wind or water. That’s important because it affects who is responsible for recouping the property owner. In addition, with more big storm seasons expected, insurers have been reluctant to provide insurance in coastal markets.

The loss of any of these types of insurance threatens to put mortgages into default and putting a crimp on what continues to be a booming industry. As it stands, 2006 is expected to be a record year for originations. (MBA is still computing final numbers.)
No one wants the party to end because of an issue like insurance. So 2006 promises to be a big year as real estate and insurance groups push for an extension of TRIA and for some kinds of similar backstop or legislation to make wind and flood insurance more available and affordable.

Survey: One-Third of Holiday Shoppers Prefer E-commerce

From one of Retail Traffic’s sister publications, Multichannel Merchant, comes a report indicating that more than one-third of holiday shoppers preferred to both research and buy products online.

Larry Freed, president/CEO of ForeSee Results, says the survey results reflect advances in technology that are making consumers more willing to shop online than in the past. For example, product reviews on consumer Websites and alternate views of products are encouraging more customers to research and shop on the Web.

“Shoppers who prefer to shop and research in the store expect the Web to be a window onto the offline world,” Freed adds. “They assume that they can go online and find out which merchandise is available offline and how much it costs in the store. If they notice discrepancies, or if their customer service needs aren’t met, their satisfaction will suffer.”

Wal-Mart CEO Staying Put

There were some rumblings this week that there would be a change at the world’s largest retailer. But according to Supermarket News, a memo was passed around the company denying that rumor.

“There was no truth to any of it, and it was inaccurate reporting on behalf of Advertising Age,” she said Castro-Wright told the store managers, referring to a report by the magazine on Tuesday that he would be shifted to an international post and succeeded by Doug McMillon, the current CEO of the company’s Sam’s Club division.