Archive for November 30th, 2007

Commerce Department Sales Figures

The Commerce Department reported Friday that consumer spending edged up just 0.2% in October, weakest showing since a similar increase in June. And individual incomes grew just 0.2%, poorest showing in six months.

A separate Commerce report showed that construction spending fell 0.8% last month, biggest decline since July. Activity in the besieged housing industry fell for a 20th straight month while non-residential construction also weakened.

The figures on consumer spending and construction raised new worries about spreading economic weakness caused by the steepest slump in housing in more than 20 years and a widening credit crisis triggered by rising mortgage defaults. Consumers are also being battered by surging prices for gasoline and other energy.

You can see the story here and the Commerce Department release here.

London Analyst Says There’s a CRE Bubble

While it’s generally accepted that residential real estate experienced a massive bubble, few have argued that commercial real estate’s seven-year bull run had lost touch with reality. But now a London analyst–based on looking at commercial real estate derivatives is saying just that.

“Commercial real estate is a full-blown bubble that feels very much at a bursting point,” said Christian Stracke, an analyst in London at CreditSights Inc., a fixed-income research firm. “There’s a fairly toxic mix of factors at work.”

There’s been a lot of stories about various commercial real estate indices of late. S&P updated its indices through August this week, which showed values still rising. The Moody’s/MIT index, meanwhile, showed a decline. And deal volume has dropped off significantly.

(Spotted at Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis.)

A Look at Sears

Fortune has a an in-depth look at Eddie Lampert’s record at Sears so far.

It wasn’t long ago that investors bid shares of Sears to dizzying heights in the belief that Lampert, who is also chairman, would magically unlock value in the beleaguered company. Instead, Sears appears to have badly lost its way. Lampert, who has said he intended to run Sears as a retailer, has so far neither returned the company to its former prowess, nor turned it into a Berkshire Hathaway-like investment vehicle, as some shareholders had hoped.

To be sure, Lampert, who made a fortune rescuing Kmart Holdings from bankruptcy protection and then used its reorganized stock to make an audacious bid for Sears in 2005, may still have some tricks up his sleeve. He could start selling off real estate, for example, although that will become harder if the economy continues to soften. But investors are clearly losing patience. After reaching a high of $195 in April, Sears (Charts, Fortune 500) shares are now trading around $100. Even analysts, who once spoke of Lampert in revered tones, are losing faith. “Eddie Lampert doesn’t have a clue how to fix Sears,” said Craig Johnson of Customer Growth Partners.