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David Bodamer
David Bodamer has been Editor-in-Chief since May 2006. Prior to that, he served as Managing Editor. Before joining Retail Traffic, Bodamer served as associate editor and senior associate editor for Commercial...more

Archive for March, 2008

Children’s Place Giving Up on Disney Stores

The operator of the Disney Store chain on Thursday said that its return of over 200 stores to the Walt Disney Co. could be completed by May if its restructuring plan is accepted by a bankruptcy judge.

The remaining 100-plus Disney Stores in North America would be closed, said Chuck Crovitz, interim chief executive officer of The Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc.

His comments came in a teleconference with analysts less than a day after the Children’s Place subsidiary that operates the Disney Stores filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.

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Building? Yes? No? Maybe?

The market is certainly in a state of flux judging by the fate of some high-profile projects.

In the past couple days announcements have come that development of Moynihan Station in New York may be jeopardized. Also, Related has pushed back the opening of its massive CityNorth project in Arizona by a year.

Trouble on the Luxury Front

Hmmm. Not such good news. Both Movado and Williams-Sonoma warned about their outlooks.

Regarding Movado:

Movado is one of many consumer goods companies trying to cope with uncertain consumer spending in a slowing economy. The Paramus company plans to restructure the way it sells the namesake Movado brand, and it will talk about plans for its eight other brands, including Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger, when it re leases fourth-quarter earnings today.

“It’s going to be a tough year because they are going to do the restructuring, and the economy is weakening,” Standard & Poor’s analyst Jason Asaeda said. “People might be trading down to lower- priced watches.”

Consumers are under enormous financial pressure from the plunge in housing sales, a volatile stock market that has eroded their net worth and a dramatic surge in food and energy prices, which is unlikely to abate any time soon. Consumer confidence in March plunged to its lowest level since the Iraq war began in 2003.

And Williams-Sonoma:

Williams-Sonoma eked out a 3% rise in fourth-quarter profits, beating its lowered targets, but the home-goods seller offered a weaker-than-expected outlook for the coming year as the housing slump continues to sap demand.

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Perk for Commercial Real Estate Developers

Deal Junkie pointed this out.

Buried deep in the new Economic Stimulus Act lies a lucrative perk for landlords and commercial tenants.

In an effort to revive the flagging real estate industry, Congress increased the amount of construction costs that can be written off in the first year for improvements to commercial or residential rental property.

Since 2006, only 2.5 percent of the costs of those improvements could be written off in the first year. The remainder had to be spread out over 39 years.

The new “bonus depreciation” schedule provides much quicker relief, bringing back the most generous depreciation rules that were in place after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Link.

Moody’s Sees More Price Drops

Commercial real estate property prices declined for the third month in a row in January, falling 0.6% from December, as measured by the Moody’s/REAL commercial property price index (CPPI).

The index is now approximately 2.4% below its peak in October 2007. Moody’s expects the index to decline another 15% to 20% before bottoming out.

The CPPI measures the change in actual transaction prices for commercial real estate assets based on the repeat sales of the same assets at different points in time.

According to Moody’s analysis of the data, the three consecutive months of falling prices have eroded—even reversed—the run-up in prices that occurred over the last few years.

“This month, the year-over-year increase in prices was 4.5%, well below the 8.3% annual rate reported last month, and the two-year change in prices of 12.5% is down from the 17.4% measure for the same time frame last month,” said the Moody’s report, authored by Sally Gordon and Tad Philipp.

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A Green Parking Lot

“People across the United States are watching this project very closely,” said Keith Beazley, with the Virginia Ready-Mixed Concrete Association.

“I don’t think there’s anything else like it, really, in the country,” said Stephen Romeo, vice president of Landmark Design Group, a local engineering company that planned the big lot.

Why the fuss?

The parking lot, which will serve an expansion of the Prime Outlets shopping mall in Williamsburg, is

advertised as “the largest pervious concrete project in the United States,” one that covers 7 acres of Earth with this environment-friendly building material.

Link.

Some Stores Welcoming Haggling

Shoppers are discovering an upside to the down economy. They are getting price breaks by reviving an age-old retail strategy: haggling.

A bargaining culture once confined largely to car showrooms and jewelry stores is taking root in major stores like Best Buy, Circuit City and Home Depot, as well as mom-and-pop operations.

Savvy consumers, empowered by the Internet and encouraged by a slowing economy, are finding that they can dicker on prices, not just on clearance items or big-ticket products like televisions but also on lower-cost goods like cameras, audio speakers, couches, rugs and even clothing.

The change is not particularly overt, and most store policies on bargaining are informal. Some major retailers, however, are quietly telling their salespeople that negotiating is acceptable.

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Expect Property Value Drops

From our sister publication, NREI.

“If credit is significantly constrained, we may see properties trading at a discount relative to their underlying worth,” Chandan says. “People who are going to be selling over the next 12 to 24 months are largely people who need an exit strategy.”

Chandan’s remarks came during a gathering Wednesday of the Southeast chapter of the Real Estate Investment Advisory Council (REIAC), where nearly 300 members voted electronically on current economic topics, offering an instant snapshot of the developers and investors’ concerns.

Nearly two-thirds of the investors —65% — predicted that commercial real estate values would drop over the next two years. More specifically, 51% said property values would drop 5% to 10% while 14% expected them to decrease by 10% to 20%. About one-third of respondents were more optimistic, saying values would rise slightly or stay the same.

An overwhelming number of the group, 82%, said the country already has entered a recession. Nearly half the voters, 49%, predicted that the slowdown would be mild with a quick rebound. Ominously, however, one-third said the slowdown “will prove deep and protracted.” Chandan, a panelist at the seminar along with Bret Wilkerson, CEO of Boston-based Property & Portfolio Research, agreed with the latter view.

More than half the group said it would be late 2009 — at least — before the economy gains momentum. The current climate of tightened credit for borrowers, a result of the subprime crisis that started in the residential sector, could prolong the nation’s recovery. Credit issues now have moved from concern over the ability to obtain affordable mortgages to the widespread use of credit cards to finance mortgage debt in addition to consumer spending.

“The revolving credit issue is a significant one,” Chandan said. “A lot of people are writing checks from their credit cards to their mortgage companies.”

A strong majority, 58% of the gathering, called multifamily the strongest commercial real estate sector, and forecast that it would perform better than other sectors through 2010.

As for the sector most likely to perform the worst over the next two years, 42% cited retail, while 38% said it would be the office sector. Only 17% thought hospitality would perform the worst.

New Delays for Atlantic Yards

Atlantic Yards is being delayed some more, especially some of the components that look to be risker in this economic environment.

“It may hold up the office building,” the developer, Bruce C. Ratner, said in a recent interview. “And the bond market may slow the pace of the residential buildings.”

Mr. Ratner, chief executive of Forest City Ratner, did not specify the kinds of delays possible, but suggested that construction could be put off for years. His comments are his first public indication that the darkening economy has slowed the ambitious project, spanning 22 acres at the intersection of Flatbush and Atlantic Avenues.

The developer did say he was confident about starting construction on a $950 million basketball arena for the Nets by the end of the year. The arena was to be surrounded by the office tower, known as Miss Brooklyn, and three residential buildings in the first phase of the project.

Link.

Wal-Mart Opens Biggest U.S. Store

Wal-Mart Stores has opened its largest U.S. supercenter here by combining it with a closed Sam’s Club location, according to reports. The 260,000-square-foot store is on two levels; Sam’s Club had been on the ground floor, and the Wal-Mart store had occupied only the second level. The Sam’s Club closed in 2006, the reports said.

From Supermarket News.

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