Archive for December 4th, 2008

ICSC: November Same-Store Sales Fall 2.7%

Updated at 11:21 AM

ICSC’s report of November same-store sales just hit and the results are not pretty at all (membership required). ICSC hasn’t added any commentary yet. The report, for now, is just the figures.

According to the report, same-store sales for the 37 chains in the index fell 2.7 percent. Without Wal-Mart, which posted a 3.0 percent same-store sales gain, same-store sales dropped 7.7 percent. This follows a dismal October, when same-store sales declined 0.9 percent.

Since June–when sales were bolstered by the government stimulus checks–the same-store sales figures have declined each month.

June: 4.2 percent
July: 2.5 percent
August: 1.7 percent
September: 1.0 percent
October: -0.9 percent
November: -2.7 percent

November, by sector:

Apparel: -10.4 percent
Department Stores: -13.3 percent
Discounters: -1.0 percent
Drugstores: -0.6 percent
Wholesale clubs: -2.4 percent
Luxury: -10.5 percent

ICSC’s report shows month-by-month sales going back to 1986. This is the first time there are back-to-back monthly declines. The 2.7 percent drop is also the worst figure in that time span. The previous worst was a 1.9 percent decline last April. The figure then, however, was a product of the Easter shift.

With November sales so bleak, a holiday shopping season with negative same-store sales seems like a distinct possibility.

Update: TNS Retail Forward compiles a PDF of the results of 40 publicly held retail companies. That can be viewed here. According to TNS Retail Forward’s math, the same-store sales decline for the industry in aggregate was 2.5 percent–a hair better than ICSC’s figure.

Delinquencies Tick Up on Construction Loans

The faltering economy has led to a spike in construction loan delinquencies, and the problem could deepen in the near term. The delinquency rate on apartment construction loans registered 3.7% in the third quarter, up from 2.9% in the second quarter, according to real estate research firm Foresight Analytics of Oakland, Calif. Delinquencies on commercial construction loans rose from 4.1% to 5.2% during the same period.

What’s more, the volume of construction lending on commercial properties rose 4% in the third quarter to $307 billion. Multifamily lending activity also climbed moderately in the third quarter, rising to $47.6 billion from $46.6 billion in the second quarter. The results are based on an analysis of lending activity at FDIC-insured commercial banks and thrifts.

The silver lining perhaps is that any expansion of construction activity earlier this year is not likely to continue into the fourth quarter, according to Foresight Analytics.

Link.