Archive for December 30th, 2008

The Push for the Bailout Continues

Grubb & Ellis president David Arena took the case for the commercial real estate bailout to the airwaves and appeared on Fox Business to discuss the particulars. The industry doesn’t seem to want to use the word bailout. That makes sense. It’s become a loaded word. Instead, Arena uses the word “backstop.” On one hand, what groups are asking for isn’t that complicated. The groups are simply asking for inclusion in an existing program. On the other hand, I think the general public is going to have a hard time accepting the notion that the commercial real estate industry needs help from the government. It will be fascinating to see how this continues to play out.

(Spotted at Square Feet Commercial Real Estate Blog.)

Previous bailout posts:

GGP Signs Forbearance Agreement

General Growth Properties Inc., a publicly traded real estate investment trust that owns more than 200 shopping malls in the U.S., signed forbearance agreements temporarily protecting the company against defaults.

The senior credit lenders agreed to take no action until Jan. 30 in return for General Growth’s consent to allowing no change in control or sale of assets without their consent. General Growth also will not incur debt or buy subordinated debt without the lenders’ consent.

The holders of $900 million in matured mortgages agreed to waive non-payment until Feb. 12.

Link.

Past links and stories:

Projection: Up to 3,000 Retail Properties to Close

This from the Boston Herald–analyst Burt Flickinger says that up to 3,000 retail properties could close in March and April. That sounds like a massive, massive number. We haven’t heard anyone else make that kind of projection. We haven’t heard about many actual mall closings at all to date. There’s certainly a lot of properties hurting. But could that projection possibly be right?

The current spate of retailer bankruptcies and those expected in the new year – along with still-healthy companies limiting or stopping their expansions – could have a ripple effect on the commercial real estate market.

Burt P. Flickinger, managing director of New York consulting firm Strategic Resource Group, expects 2,000 to 3,000 U.S. malls and shopping centers to close in March and April.

Normally, the large banks and financing companies would have adequate funds to “backstop” the REITs and other retail center owners. But so many retailers and property owners are either “retracting or collapsing” at the same time that there’s insufficient credit to save every one, according to Flickinger.

“It’s a natural falling out,” he said.

As More US Retailers Fail, Malls Could Be Next Victim

“The leverage is what’s going to kill them,” said Bret Wilkerson, chief executive of Property & Portfolio Research.

That means that some malls will be grappling with less income while facing oppressive debt costs.

“You’ve got pressure from both sides here,” Calanog said.

Reis forecasts that the fourth-quarter mall vacancy rate could top 7 percent, the highest since Reis began tracking regional mall performance in the start of 2000.

It sees fourth-quarter mall rents falling by 0.1 to 0.4 percent.

All retail properties, not just large malls, may see their rents fall by an average of 3.5 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009, according to Property & Portfolio Research.

The research firm tracks “economic vacancy,” or the amount of retail space that surpasses the amount that sales can support.

Economic vacancy now stands at about 13.5 percent and is expected to peak at 17.3 percent in the third quarter of 2009, “implying that one out of every six square feet needs to just go away,” Wilkerson said.

Link.