Archive for January, 2009
by David Bodamer January 7th, 2009
Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers approached 10-year highs in the fourth quarter, and are set to rise further as declining retail sales put more stores out of business, research firm Reis Inc. said.
Regional mall vacancies rose to 7.1 percent last quarter from 6.6 percent in the third quarter. It was the highest vacancy rate since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000, as well as the largest quarter-to-quarter jump in vacancies, according to New York-based Reis.
More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc. and Sharper Image Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008 as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Vacancies will rise further until the job market recovers, housing prices stabilize and lending resumes, restoring consumer confidence, said Reis.
“So much of consumer spending depends on the wealth effect,” said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. “Unfortunately, all three conditions are still in flux. Even when they stabilize we often observe anywhere from a 12- to 24- month lag until commercial retail properties begin benefiting.”
At neighborhood and community shopping centers, the vacancy rate rose to 8.9 percent from 8.4 percent in the third quarter, the highest since Reis began publishing quarterly data in 1999.
Link.
Related Topics: News, Research, Retail Real Estate |
by David Bodamer January 6th, 2009
Glimcher Realty Trust sold the The Great Mall of the Great Plains in Olathe, Kansas for $20.5 million to a group of local investors. Normally, I wouldn’t link to news of one-off mall sale. What makes the deal interesting is that, according to Glimcher, the REIT had a $30 million mortgage on the property. In other words, it sold the property for about two-thirds the mortgage value. One possible reason: According to the Kansas City Star story, the property is currently just 70 percent occupied. I wonder if this is indicative of the kind of distressed/opportunistic sales we’re going to see more of as 2009 progresses.
Block said the new owners already are in talks with “entrepreneurial” local and regional retailers and restaurants to fill empty spaces and increase traffic at the mall, which is about 70 percent occupied. He said those businesses will be offered “reasonable” rental rates and short- to mid-term leases with relocation rights within the mall if they are successful.
National tenants are more interested in opening in 2010 to 2012, when the economy is expected to improve.
The new owners also are in talks with Olathe city officials about financial incentives for redevelopment. Block said the incentives are necessary to bring in “new and exciting and large retailers” that will set the mall apart from others in the area.
Related Topics: Finance, Investment, News, REITs, Retail Real Estate |
by David Bodamer January 6th, 2009
China, notorious for the amount of copyright infringement that goes on, now hosts a shopping center entirely devoted to fake brands including McDnoald’s, Bucksstar Coffee and Pizza Huh.
Related Topics: Development, International, News, Quirky |
by David Bodamer January 5th, 2009
Rope lines, numbered tickets and walkie-talkies for store employees could help control frenzied bargain-hunters, police said in a report issued after a Wal-Mart worker was killed in a Black Friday stampede.
Nassau County police released recommendations Wednesday, two weeks after meeting with 75 Long Island retailers about how to stage major sales events safely.
Retailers and police had debated who should take the lead on securing discount-hungry crowds after temporary Wal-Mart worker Jdimytai Damour was trampled to death the day after Thanksgiving in Valley Stream.
The report said that while county police would respond if needed, “the responsibility for the security and control of these sales events rests with the store. Store administrators should never market a sales event without having a plan, and the proper resources to manage it.”
Link.
Related Topics: Management & Leasing, News, Retail, Security |
by David Bodamer January 5th, 2009
Like last year, Grubb & Ellis has a slick interface in place for its 2009 Forecast Report. You can generate custom reports by property type and by region. Or you can just download the whole thing.
Related Topics: News, Research |
by David Bodamer January 5th, 2009
U.S. mall owner General Growth Properties Inc has switched bankruptcy counsel to Weil, Gotshal & Manges, parting with Sidley Austin LLP, a representative of General Growth told Reuters late Sunday.
General Growth is also hiring another law firm – Kirkland & Ellis – as bankruptcy counsel for some of it subsidiaries, another source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
The General Growth representative, who requested not to be identified, declined to comment on the reasons behind the switch.
Weil and Kirkland did not return requests from Reuters seeking comment.
Link.
Past links and stories:
- Dec. 30, 2008, GGP Signs Forebearance Agreement
- Dec. 19, 2008, GGP Puts Centers on the Block
- Dec. 18, 2008, General Growth Extension Comes Through
- Dec. 15, 2008, GGP “Continuing its Discussions with Lenders”
- Dec. 14, 2008, Breaking: GGP Refinances
- Dec. 5, 2008, Citi Plays Hardball With GGP
- Dec. 3, 2008, Centro, GGP Find Ways to Hang On
- Dec. 1, 2008, GGP Gets Two Week Extension
- Nov. 25, 2008, Ackman Builds Stake in GGP
- Nov. 20, 2008, General Growth Hires Bankruptcy Advisor
- Nov. 17, 2008, General Growth Downgraded; Feldman to Stop Filing Public Reports
- Nov. 12, 2008, General Growth Roundup
- Nov. 11, 2008, General Growth Warns of Default
- Nov. 5, 2008, GGP, Kimco Fall After Cutting Forecasts
- Nov. 2, 2008, General Growth “Almost Literally Worth Nothing”
- Oct. 17, 2008, Management Changes at GGP
- Oct. 15, 2008, Margin Calls Hit Two More Retail REITs
- Oct. 7, 2008, General Growth Near Bankruptcy?
- Oct. 3, 2008, General Growth CFO Steps Down; Company Suspends Dividend
- Oct. 2, 2008 GGP Under Fire for Inclusion on Short-Sell Ban List
- Oct. 1, 2008, Could General Growth Be Sold?
- Sept. 23, 2008, Short Selling Banned on General Growth
- Sept. 22, 2008, General Growth Strikes Back
- Sept. 16, 2008, General Growth Offers More Recourse
- Aug. 12, 2008, Another Look at GGP’s Debt
- Aug. 6, 2008, Analysis of GGP’s Debt
- July 25, 2008, Stories With Bigger Implications?
- July 14, 2008, GGP Lines Up New Financing
- April 16, 2008, GGP’s Growing Debt Problem
Related Topics: News |
by David Bodamer January 5th, 2009
The San Francisco Chronicle has a story doing a good job summing up the situation for the retail real estate sector. There’s nothing particularly new in the story. The nice touch is a chart at the bottom aggregating the most pessimistic predictions in various numbers such as store closings, retail property closings, debt coming due and rent decreases in 2009.
Will this all come to pass? Hopefully not. But at least this establishes a baseline for the year.
Stores that will close in 2009: 200,000*
Malls that will close in 2009: 2,000 to 3,000*
Retail vacancy rate by third quarter: 12.7 percent, up from 9.8 percent a year earlier**
Rent decline by third quarter: 7.3%**
Debt coming due for publicly traded mall owners in 2009 and 2010: $23 billion***
Stores that will open in 2009: 105,000 to 110,000, down from around 125,000 in recent years****
Sources: *Strategic Resource Group, **National Association of Realtors, ***Green Street Advisors Inc., ****International Council of Shopping Centers
Related Topics: Finance, News, REITs, Retail, Retail Real Estate |
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Latest on the Commercial Real Estate Bailout Push
by David Bodamer January 5th, 2009
In a provocative post called “The Judith Miller Effect”, Deal Junkie wonders if the commercial real estate industry has been pushing for excessively negative articles–such as this one in the New York Times–as groups lobby for the industry’s eligibility for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.
If this is the case, it would be a huge shift for the commercial real estate sector. In my experience, retail real estate types are always accentuating the positive. There has been a rash of very negative articles of late. (Take a look at some of the things I’ve posted here in the past couple of weeks.) Is it posturing? Or is this because things have legitimately taken a turn for the worse? I’m not a big fan of conspiracy theories at all. Given everything we at Retail Traffic have seen in the data and from what we’ve heard in conversations with industry types, things are definitely tough out there. The most optimistic hope that things turn before the end of 2009. But most folks are mentally preparing to ride this out and rebound in 2010. This is what we detailed in The Lost Year, which we published before we became aware of any lobbying efforts by the industry for a bailout.
Previous bailout posts:
No Comments Related Topics: Commentary, Finance, News, Retail Real Estate, Trends |