Archive for August, 2009

Simon CEO Expects New REIT Growth

All the recent equity and debt offerings by publicly traded REITs have led to an interesting debate on the future of the U.S. REIT sector. Back in the spring, when REIT shares were trading near an all-time low, some industry insiders expected that the current downturn would significantly shrink the REIT industry, as many companies would no longer see much sense in remaining in the public sector.

Now, Forbes has published an interview with Simon Property Group CEO David Simon in which Simon predicts the opposite will actually be the case. Pressed for cash, many private companies will enter the REIT sector. However, Simon expects this will not be entirely new REIT players, but rather those firms that were previouly in the public market, but went private in the mid 2000s.

Kimco Makes Headlines; Holiday Sales Projections Remain Dismal (Weekend Roundup)

Debt levels still seem to be at the top of everyone’s mind, as the biggest news making the rounds this weekend was a $108 million loan secured by Kimco Realty Corp. Meanwhile, as we move closer to September, some market analysts have begun preparing forecasts for the 2009 holiday shopping season and they are not pretty. While this year will be an improvement over last year’s abysmal fourth quarter, early projections tell us not to expect anything better than a 1 percent increase in same-store sales.

Cap Rates Are Rising; But Relief Might Come Sooner Than Expected (Thursday’s News & Notes)

Today, posts from around the web offered conflicting views on the state of the commercial real estate market. Some experts worry that cap rates are rising through the roof and that some markets will see massive amounts of foreclosures next year. Others predict the industry might start to recover in a matter of months.

Opportunistic Investing in Single Tenant Properties

Boulder Net Lease Funds has published an eight-page white paper written by Randy Blankstein and Noah Gottlieb looking at the prospects for opportunistic investment in single tenant properties.

It weighs the risks and returns in the current climate. One of the big issues is the question of renewal. When investing, you have to look at the existing lease term and determine what the rent will look like when the current lease expires. It goes into a lot more detail than that and has a couple of interesting charts as well.

The company has granted me the permission to post the document here. Please feel free to leave any feedback on the document in our comments section.

Opportunistic Investing in Single Tenant Properties

The State of California Retail Real Estate

Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services’ research division just released third quarter reports looking at eight California markets.

Below are submarket vacancy and rental stats on Los Angeles, Sacramento, Oakland, San Bernardino-Riverside, San Jose, San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County. According to the data, California’s urban areas have fared better in the past 12 months that the suburban areas.

For example, in San Francisco’s two submarkets, Marin and San Mateo counties, the vacancy rate is around 4 percent and has barely moved in the past year. Rents have remained virtually flat as well. For the year, Marcus & Millichap expects asking rents to fall 2 percent to $33.50 per square foot, while effective rents will end the year at $30.66 per square foot, a 3.2 percent decline. Similarly, in some of Los Angeles’ submarkets, the vacancy rate is still below 4 percent and effective rents are down less than 4 percent.

In contrast, in some of the Inland Empire markets like South Riverside County and Palm Desert, the vacancy rate is well north of 10 percent. In South Riverside County and Colton/Redlands/San Bernardino, the vacancy rates jumped by 460 basis points and 590 basis points respectively in the past 12 months. Effective rents have dropped 8.0 percent and 7.4 percent in those markets in the last 12 months. For 2009 as a whole, the brokerage firm expects asking rents to drop 3.6 percent to $21.12 per square foot in comparison to 2008, while effective rents will fall 7.2 percent to $17.92 per square foot.

(Click on charts to get a larger view.)
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Apple Moving Uptown; Bank’s Commercial Real Estate Holdings; Top CRE Twitterers (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

This week, August doldrums continued in the world of retail real estate, with no major transactions being reported. Nevertheless, there have been some encouraging news items coming from selected retailers and intriguing takes on what the future holds for our industry.

Bloomberg Videos on Commercial Real Estate

These are a few days old. Deal Junkie also posted them. But if you haven’t seen them yet, you can check them out below. For other recent videos, check the Retail Traffic VideoWire at ClipSyndicate.

Commentaries on the GGP Ruling

Law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz has distributed two commentaries on the ruling in General Growth Properties’ bankruptcy that allows it to include special purpose entities in its bankruptcy on properties that are not experiencing financial difficulties. The first came out the day of the ruling. The second was posted yesterday.

Wachtell Lipton on GGP

REIT and Real Estate Restructurings and Bankruptcies – Further Observations From the Front Lines

Assessing TALF; Dollar General Files IPO (Monday’s News & Notes)

There’s a bit of a debate in the market about the efficacy of TALF and commercial real estate lending.

First Pacific Advisors LLC’s Julian Mann expressed some skepticism about how effecting the TALF program will be for commercial real estate lending, even though it’s been extended for another year. In its most recent offering, the Federal Reserve received $2.3 billion of loan requests for bonds. Mann said, “Taking $2.3 billion out of the market is not going to move the needle one iota. Clearly if there was conviction that a recovery was in sight, the availability of cheap nonrecourse financing would be irresistible.”

A story from Finance and Commerce, however, reaches a different conclusion. The story quotes experts that say the program merely needs time to work.

Here are some other retail and retail real estate news and notes from over the weekend.

  • HousingWire.com looked at a report from Barclays Capital that sees Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF) demand outstrip supply.
  • Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis blog examined the interesting trend of shoppers increasingly leaving items at the checkout counter after having last-minute second thoughts. This is leading to hire restocking costs for both brick-and-mortar and online retailers.
  • ChannelWeb reported that those looking to work at Microsoft’s coming stores need to be prepared to do some heavy lifting. That observation is based on looking at job listings for the first couple of Microsoft stores, which will open this fall.
  • Dollar General filed for its initial public offering. Here’s another story looking at the move. Our July cover story concluded that Dollar General was arguably the most successful of any of the private equity retail buyouts that occurred in recent years. The fact that KKR is taking the firm public again seems to vindicate that assessment. And speaking of private equity, Advent International is purchasing Charlotte Russe for $380 million.
  • The Miami Herald has a nice update on the trend of landlords finding alternative uses for vacant retail space. We hosted a Webinar on this topic earlier in the year. The Webinar can be accessed on demand.
  • Who would your guess for the most lucrative retailer on Manhattan’s posh Fifth Avenue be? If you guessed Apple, you are correct. However, I’m guessing few people would have made that leap given all the pricey luxury retailers lining the retail mecca. The fact that Apple may be the strip’s highest gross retailer is a testament to how powerful a merchant the company has become.
  • Speaking of Manhattan, discount department store chain Kohl’s may be following competitor JCPenney into the borough. JCPenney opened its first location in Manhattan earlier this summer. Kohl’s is reportedly looking a site about 20 blocks north of where JCPenney set up shop.

New Moody’s Data; Reaction to TALF (Thursday’s News & Notes)

Here are some recent news and notes on retail and retail real estate.

  • Square Feet blog has a nice, simple post looking at the latest results from Moody’s commercial property price index. Prices fell 1.0 percent from May to June and are down about 27 percent from the year prior. The National Association of Realtors also put out some new commentary on commercial real estate. Rolfe Winkler summarized the findings.
  • A nice report from CoStar looks at the reaction by commercial real estate execs to TALF’s extension.
  • A Wall Street Journal piece looked at the rally in REIT shares. REIT stocks have been on a major winning streak since about May.
  • The UPI provides the most recent doom and gloom report on commercial real estate. This one calls what we experienced a commercial real estate “bubble.” I actually don’t think we’ve seen that term thrown around too much. Was it a bubble or was it a boom? Was it a boom that turned into a bubble?
  • A Dow Jones story looked at how consolidation among big banks has led to a glut of bank branches, which is just adding more pressure to the retail real estate sector. This is a trend we looked at back in January.
  • Jim Cramer wrote a brief piece boosting commercial real estate. He’s had enough of the doom and gloom. He says the woes in the sector have been contained. This comes just more than two weeks after he made a similar argument on his show.