Archive for November, 2009

Black Friday Reaction; Beware Justin Bieber; There’s an App for Malls(Holiday Weekend Roundup)

We made it through Black Friday and the rest of the weekend. NRF’s early take is that up 0.5 percent. ShopperTrak’s numbers are extrapolated off the traffic counts the company conducts at malls.

Barry Ritholz looks at why the earliest numbers that get reported are a bit suspect. We’ll get more reliable figures tomorrow. That’s when ICSC and Goldman Sachs report the first weekly holiday same-store sales stats. Still, all the early numbers should be viewed with some skepticism and we really need to wait until the full season has passed and we started getting the monthly same-store sales numbers from retailers. We’ll get November numbers in early December. That will be the first really clear view of how the holiday shopping season is panning out.

As the stats come rolling in, the Wall Street Journal has a report that wonders if any of the holiday sales predictions matter. Most of the previews come out in September and October. Is that too soon for forecasts? The report also looks at the methodologies of the different prognosticators and wonder if any are accurate enough.

Here are some other news and notes from the last few days.

Court Rulings on Atlantic Yards, DestiNY USA and Block 37; Smaller Concepts for Target, Ahold (Tuesday’s News & Notes)

It’s been a while since we posted a roundup here. So here are some headlines and blog posts from the past week or so that you might be interested in if you hadn’t seen them yet.

  • Atlantic Yards has cleared some legal obstacles. The Court of Appeals dismissed a challenge to the state’s use of eminent domain for the project. The development has long been delayed by legal wranglings and other issues. Now it may finally be able to move forward.
  • In a ruling that could have big implications, Citigroup is being forced to continue funding the construction of Destiny USA. The bank believes the project is a failure and wants to stop funding construction. The court ruled against it and now others are wondering what kind of language needs to be in place on construction financing that will enable banks to back away from questionable projects.
  • Another court decision that has people talking is a ruling in Chicago which removed Joseph Freed and Associates as the developer behind the Block 37 project. This ruling comes just as the first stores for the project are about to open. David Stejkowski has some interesting analysis of the ruling. He calls it shortsighted and argues that the lender was within its rights to push for a receiver, but that it may hurt the bank in the long run.
  • NREI detailed findings from a Fitch report that concluded that life insurance companies will be able to endure CMBS delinquencies. Conservatively, Fitch projects that life insurers will take a hit of $15.7 to $19.1 billion on their commercial real estate investments, compared with industry capital of $228 billion as of June 30.
  • Food retailer Royal Ahold NV is planning to expand in the U.S. through opening of convenience stores and other formats. It had previously operated in the sector, but got out of the business in 2005. It is currently operating a pilot store in Pennsylvania.
  • In a similar vein, Target is also looking at a smaller concept than its typical 128,000-square-foot locations. It wants to open more urban stores and wants a smaller, more flexible concept that it can roll out in cities. At those locations, Target may prune the number of items available by as much as 25 percent by cutting certain sizes and colors of products to ensure the stores are well-stocked.
  • MetLife and Prudential face up to $23 billion in losses on commercial real estate.
  • Estimates from Real Capital Analytics are that total investment sales volume in commercial real estate in 2009 will amount to $49 billion. That will make it the lowest annual investment sales volume since the firm began tracking deals in 2001. Bloomberg has the report.

General Growth Inks Pact to Restructure Mortgages on 70 Malls

General Growth has reached a deal with its lenders to restructure mortgages on 70 malls. It hopes to reach similar agreements on other properties based on this one. It announced the pact during a bankruptcy court hearing. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters have stories so far.

From the WSJ:

Attorneys for General Growth, which has been operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection since April, outlined rough details of the deal before U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Allan Gropper. But they didn’t touch on details such as the total amount of debt covered by the deal. General Growth intends to use the pact as a template for negotiating deals with the rest of its many creditors, its attorneys said. They requested a confirmation hearing for the initial pact be set for Dec. 14.

The deal would extend the due dates on the mortgages by an average of six years to 2016 in return for General Growth providing those lenders “significant concessions” such as additional amortization payments on the loans, more reserves for the loans and additional bankruptcy protections for the lenders. General Growth’s attorneys didn’t quantify the total cost to the company. The lenders involved are servicers overseeing securitized mortgages and life-insurance companies including Prudential Financial Inc.

There have also been a couple of interesting posts in the blogosphere about General Growth, especially in light of the news that broke earlier this week that Simon may be prepping a bid for some or all of General Growth’s properties.

David Stejkowski reviewed some earlier predictions about what he thought might happen with General Growth’s bankruptcy. He thought Simon would own part of GGP and Westfield might be involved. And that’s exactly what the story earlier this week indicated could happen.

Meanwhile, The CRE Review put up a lengthy post that examined a potential deal. It includes a link to an interactive map charting what a combined Simon and General Growth portfolio would look like. Here’s a screen shot of the map. But you should go to the actual one if you really want to dig deep into the geography. The post also looks at the companies’ debt loads and some of their largest tenants and features some illustrative charts. So there’s a wealth of information there.

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CNBC: Commercial Real Estate Optimism Boosts Regional Banks

Finally, some commentary on commercial real estate that’s not all doom and gloom. The important point–there will be stratification. It’s not going to be an outright collapse. And REITs look better every day.

Report: Simon Looking at General Growth

This just came over the wires from the Wall Street Journal. It appears Simon Property Group has hired an adviser and is evaluating General Growth Properties. Meanwhile, Westfield Group also has cash it could use as part of an acquisition. Could a bidding war be afoot? Or could the firms be looking to divvy up General Growth’s assets? In the mean time, it appears General Growth is very close to restructuring its debt.

There’s a ton of history here. Years ago Simon and Westfield teamed with Rouse Co. to buy Rodamco North America for $5.3 billion, snatching the company right from under General Growth’s nose. General Growth shortly before that deal had issued 8 million shares as it presumably prepped to take over Rodamco. General Growth eventually used the funds in a series of buys that culminated in its takeover of Rouse–a bit of sweet revenge for the firm. At the end of that spree, General Growth nearly rivaled Simon in size. (Our May 2005 cover story recounted how the firms emerged as the industry’s two titans.)

However, the Rouse deal, along with some of the others GGP had undertaken, left it saddled with a ton of debt, which is what triggered its bankruptcy filing earlier this year. Simon, for its part, also has a history of buying distressed firms. In early 2007 it purchased troubled Mills Corp. It will be interesting to track how all of this shakes out.

Mall giant Simon Property Group Inc. has hired investment adviser Lazard Ltd. and law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to help it formulate a strategy for possibly bidding for all or part of rival General Growth Properties Inc., which is operating under Chapter 11 protection.

The moves set the stage for what could be a takeover struggle as General Growth readies a plan to reorganize and exit from bankruptcy. General Growth, the country’s second-largest mall operator, after Simon, by number of properties, is close to a deal with lenders to restructure its $11.5 billion in securitized mortgages with the intent of filing a reorganization plan by February, people familiar with the talks say.

Another big rival, Australian mall owner Westfield Group, has $6.8 billion of cash and equivalents, much of it raised in the past year. Westfield, which owns 55 malls in the U.S., is monitoring General Growth’s bankruptcy but hasn’t hired advisers to study it, a person familiar with the matter said. Westfield and General Growth representatives declined to comment on the matter. A Simon representative confirmed that the company has hired the advisers.

Property Fundamentals Might Be Stabilizing, But New Projects Face Delays (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

This seems to be a bad week to be a developer. At least three major projects around the country might be delayed, for reasons ranging from unfavorable market conditions to disputes over wages for future mall employees.

  • Chicago developer Joseph Freed & Associates is facing a messy court battle with its lender days before the company’s Block 37 project is slated to open, according to The Chicago Tribune.
  • And in the Bronx, a wage dispute threatens to derail Related Cos.’ redevelopment of the Kingsbridge Armory into a retail center, reports The New York Times.
  • Meanwhile, an Arizona Republic story notes that mall developer Westcor wants to delay construction of a regional mall in Goodyear, Ariz. by four years because of unfavorable market conditions.
  • Market conditions might be changing for the better, however. Executives with Centro Properties Trust report that the company’s U.S. portfolio of shopping centers has been showing signs of stabilization, according to Inside Retailing.
  • Courier Post Online reports that some of Centro’s peers might be solving their occupancy problems by signing leases with non-traditional tenants, including dentist offices and spas.
  • Plus, Developers Diversified Realty finally saw the sale of $400 million in TALF-sponsored CMBS bonds that will help it refinance its loans, reports Bloomberg.
  • Another Bloomberg story, however, warned that regional banks might see their credit ratings cut substantially because of the declines in values of commercial real estate loans.
  • Finally, ICSC kicked off its Holiday Watch for 2009.

Tracing the Commercial Real Estate Boom and Bust

Business Insider has an interesting chronology posted on its site tracing the rise and fall of commercial real estate that’s left us in a situation today in which we’re looking at a wave of defaults making its way through the industry.

I’ve embedded the presentation below. It’s done in a slightly annoying way–forcing you to click through 32 slides to read the whole narrative so you have to read it one paragraph at a time. The title itself is also misleading. The commercial real estate boom was not created by a “government bailout.” I assume that John Carney is referring to the Resolution Trust Corp. that was used to unwind the debts from failed savings and loans when he’s making that assertion. I do not think the RTC–which contributed to the creation of commercial mortgage-backed securities–is the sole source of the extreme rise in values we saw between 2000 and 2007. There are a variety of factors that this piece touches on that had nothing to do with government intervention. It’s hard to draw a connection between the RTC and the rise of REITs, for instance, which were a big part of the commercial real estate boom. Moreover, small and regional banks have nothing at all to do with CMBS. They are not conduit lenders.

Regardless, the presentation is worth going through. And I’m curious as to what readers in the commercial real estate space think of the narrative Carney is laying out.

Costco Takes Manhattan; Banks Shake Off Toxic Loans (Friday’s News & Notes)

It was a mixed bag today in terms of news for the retail real estat industry. Costco’s announcement of its first store in Manhattan was encouraging. Wal-Mart’s warning that we might be in for a lackluster holiday shopping season was not.

  • For some landlords, the break-down in leasing fundamentals is proving to be a blessing in disguise. Bloomberg reports that warehouse club Costco opened its first store in Manhattan , in East Harlem. Costco has been looking for a location in the city for years, but was finally able to close the deal because of a deep discount on the rent.
  • Those in the retail real estate industry, however, should brace themselves for the possibility that this downturn might last a while. When reporting its sales results today, Wal-Mart warned its customers still worry about spending money, according to The New York Post. That means the holiday shopping season isn’t likely to be great for the retailers.
  • In addition, it seems the string of liquidations in the retail sector is not over yet. This week, ink seller InkStop filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, reports Cleveland.com.
  • Meanwhile, Forbes published a story criticizing private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts for getting too greedy on the Dollar General deal. KKR reportedly took millions of dollars in fees from the retailer’s coffers before its IPO.
  • The encouraging news is that there is finally some movement on the real estate front. CoStar reports that institutional investors are beginning to buy class-A commercial assets. You can read Retail Chatr’s reaction to some of the points the story makes here .
  • At the same time, some banks have begun to dispose of the most toxic real estate loans on their balance sheets, according to Money CNN. In a market where many lenders still prefer to “pretend and extend,” that’s a sign of a breakthrough.

Tranche Warfare; Evaluations of TALF; Banks Adopt New Rules (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

Here are some recent news and notes about retail and retail real estate.

  • Ready for tranche warfare? FinCriAdviser takes a good look at the brewing tensions building between senior and junior bondholders of CMBS debt. The story predicts we’ll see a fair number of lawsuits stemming from conflicts over how to restructure and resolve troubled commercial mortgages. Senior holders may not want to go along with restructuring these loans because they stand to get paid back regardless.
  • PREIT shed some light on its refinancing efforts. Citybiz showcased the relevant details in a recent SEC filing from the REIT.
  • The latest locale for an Apple Store? Underneath the Louvre. We’ve heard some of their stores referred to as great pieces of retail architecture. So why not?
  • Sam Zell spoke out against the idea that commercial real estate is facing an armageddon. He’s not brushing off the troubles the sector faces. But he does think the crisis facing the sector has been “greatly exaggerated.”
  • The CRE Review raised some interesting criticisms of the Fed’s TALF program in part sparked by a post on the Anonymous Banker blog. CRE Review points out that to date all the action in regards to TALF has been in the Legacy CMBS program. It has done little to actually get new lending going and both posts wonder if it will be effective in getting securitization markets working again.
  • Both posts were partly in response to the recent deal involving Developers Diversified Realty and TALF. There are a lot of details about that at FT Alphaville. DDR’s success or failure could set the stage for more REITs to try and line up financing this way.
  • Meanwhile, a piece in the Wall Street Journal looks at how banks are rushing to adopt new rules allowing them to reclassify nonperforming loans as something else, which would mean banks would have to absorb fewer losses on bad mortgages. Mike Shedlock, at Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis had some choice comments about the new rules. Shedlock wrote, “These kind of reporting games do not really help anyone. All the pretending does is prolong the agony. Banks know the true score even if investors don’t. Thus, such measures to free up capital for banks to lend will not work here anymore than the same shell games encouraged lending in Japan.”

Business Insider: The Famous ‘Kelo House’ Property Is Now A Vacant Lot

It was four years ago that the shocking Supreme Court ruling came down permitting the city of New London to use eminent domain to seize private residences to make way for a pharmaceutical plant. The ruling outraged our readers and led to rapid response from many states explicitly barring this sort of thing.

However, a not so funny thing has happened. The houses were demolished. Pfizer got the land virtually for free. But the research and development plant is going to be shut down. Business Insider has a post about what happened that I’ve embedded below.