Archive for November, 2009

Retail Sector to See More Closings in 2010; More Pain for Owners (Monday’s News & Notes)

As we head into the all-important November/December shopping season, the stakes are getting high for everyone involved. Some retailers are working on holiday sales strategies that will protect them from taking huge hits on prices, while others are mulling over further store closings. The retail industry’s performance in the next two months will help determine how much more pain retail property owners will experience before the commercial real estate sector begins to recover.

  • Developers Diversified Realty announcing a changing of guard at the top. The shopping center REIT appointed Daniel B. Hurwitz as successor to Scott A. Wolstein in the role of company president and CEO. Wolstein will stay on as chairman. The change will take place January 1.
  • A resourceful shopping center developer in Petaluma, Calif. offered to pre-pay a sales tax to the city, provided his project received speedy approval, according to Petaluma 360.
  • There was some good news from the retail sector, as The New York Post reported that private equity firm Leonard Green & Partners made a nice profit on its investment in upscale grocer Whole Foods.
  • The New York Post also notes that executives from Dunkin’ Brands have made efforts to improve the company’s relationship with its franchisees, which has been strained by too many lawsuits in recent years.
  • Meanwhile, many retailers are focused on the upcoming holiday shopping season. A great number plan to avoid the huge markdowns seen last year by ordering less inventory, according to CNN Money.
  • On the down side, The Wall Street Journal reveals that book seller Borders Group plans to close 200 Waldenbooks stores early next year.
  • An uptick in store closings might put additional pressure on retail real estate values. In fact, the commercial real estate sector might be in for more pain in 2010, warns GE Capital CEO Ronald Pressman, unless the sector is buoyed by job growth or government intervention.

Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010

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PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute released their Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 this morning. They did a media call earlier today. I provided Twitter updates during the call.

Here are some of the key charts in the report.

Cap Rate Projections
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Debt & Equity Capital Market Forecasts
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Equity forecast

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Buy/Hold/Sell Recommendations
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October Same-Store Sales Roundup

Retail Forward, ICSC and Retail Metrics have all crunched the numbers. The verdict: Retailers posted year-over-year same-store sales gains in October for the sector’s best single month since April 2008. The one giant caveat to the figures is that the year over year comparisons are now much more generous than what the industry had been facing previously. Retail sales began to tank last fall. For example, last October, same-store sales fell 4.2 percent in October, 7.7 percent in November and 4.6 percent in December on year-over-year bases.

According to Retail Forward, sales-weighted same-store sales excluding Walmart increased 2.3 percent in October for the approximately 30 retailers that reported numbers. (A pdf with each retailer’s results can be downloaded here.) Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward, said in a statement, “October again showed positive signs from shoppers, although the improvement was less even among retailers compared with the back-to-school months. Households remain focused on shopping for needs and this kind of cautious shopping behavior will restrain the sales improvement we can expect in the coming months.”

ICSC’s preliminary tally is that same-store sales grew 2.1 percent in October in comparison with last year. Here are ICSC’s results going back to 1993.

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Retail Metrics, meanwhile, reported that same-store sales increased 2.2 percent. Retail Metrics’ numbers include 43 retailers. Of those, 17 posted gains, one had flat sales and 25 posted same-store sales declines.

Despite the beat the results were somewhat mixed as teen apparel retailers laid an egg in October with an aggregate 4.7% decline, which was far short of expectations. Department stores gave a lift to the month as both high end chains Saks and Nordstrom beat expectations and the group exceeded estimates by 60 bp with a 0.8% decline. This marked the group’s best comp since Apr-08.

More Worries About Commercial Real Estate; NIMBY Wars; Dollar General’s IPO (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

More people are worrying about commercial real estate. A Reuters piece from earlier this week features comments from Jon Greenlee, associate director of the Fed’s Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation.

Greenlee, remember, testified in a hearing before Congress in July on the precarious state of commercial real estate. What makes me worry about these kinds of hearings is that the logic of them is to put pressure on Congress to give the financial system (or developers) government aid. Is that really what we want?

Puffing up the threat commercial real estate poses to the system could lead to unnecessary bailouts and taxpayers being on the hook for losses that should be recognized by Wall Street. The logic of where we’re headed is that no one should take any losses for the highly-leveraged bad bets on properties with inflated values that took place. I think losses need to be recognized and while the process may be painful, we shouldn’t avoid it by having another bailout enacted.

Here are some other recent news and notes about retail and retail real estate.

  • The Llenrock Blog reviews Saint Consulting’s new book, Nimby Wars. Saint Consulting specializes in land use politics consulting and the book summarizes some of the lessons the firm has learned over the years. The review gives a good sense of the book’s contents and says it is a must read for developers.
  • There’s been a recent meme on a couple commercial real estate blogs and sites recently about how today is different than the commercial real estate crash in the early 1990s. Square Feet blog does an excellent job putting all the posts together in one place and summarizing the arguments.
  • We published Realpoint’s monthly look at CMBS delinquencies here. This Bloomberg piece looks at the numbers from Reis Inc. Both outlets say that CMBS delinquencies and defaults hit a new high in the third quarter.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on Developers’ Diversified’s TALF deal. The shopping center REIT obtained a $400 million loan from Goldman Sachs secured by 28 properties that was to be converted into a CMBS offering through TALF. The Fed is reviewing the deal now. The story indicates that it is likely to approve the transaction.
  • Calculated Risk takes an informative look at the different commercial real estate indexes. The blog opted to do this after conflicting data emerged from different indexes in recent days. A monthly price index showed continued deterioration in commercial real estate pricing while the latest transaction-based index showed a surprising spike in values. The post explains how that happened.
  • More details emerged about Dollar General’s pending IPO. It will offer 34.1 million shares priced between $21 and $23 per share.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Blackstone will pay $195 million for stakes in some Glimcher malls.
  • TIC, TIC, TIC … Boom

    A few years ago tenant-in-common market was huge with the industry doubling size each year from 2002 to 2006. TICs enabled investors to pool money to purchase large commercial real estate assets. It was a way for small investors to get exposure to commercial real estate. It was also a way for 1031 investors to pool funds and buy larger assets. More than 60 TIC sponsors emerged to fill the demand for the product at the industry’s height.

    But there was always something a little funny about the concept. A question plagued sponsors. Were TICs securities or were they straight real estate investments? The difference had big implications.

    As this recent story from NREI describes it:

    On one side are sponsors that sell TICs as securities, and subsequently follow Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules for the marketing and sale of those securities. On the other side are those sponsors that follow a traditional real estate model in which they package and sell TICs as fractional ownership.

    Real estate-based TICs have been able to avoid SEC oversight, thereby giving them greater flexibility in marketing real estate to potential investors. But the future of real estate-based sponsors is now in doubt.

    The SEC recently issued a letter that effectively reinforced its opinion that TICs are securities. That letter is giving many real estate sponsors pause because continuing to sell TICs under the real estate model could leave them vulnerable to legal action for not following SEC rules and regulations.

    The SEC was pretty definitive in its statement that it viewed TICs as securities.

    In part, the debate was triggered by concerns of abuse. With TICs treated as securities, it meant you could only buy into an investment through a registered representative and the whole thing was subject to SEC oversight. For TICs that treated it as real estate, however, no oversight was necessary and the potential for fraud was greater. There were also always questions about the ability of investors to pull money out of TICs early and TICs are just as flummoxed in dealing with declining property values as every other commercial real estate owner. Selling properties for less than the sponsor paid would wipe out part of each investor’s equity. As a result, TICs drew their fair amount of suspicion even during good times.

    As we reported in 2006:

    TICs, like any type of real estate investment, can be loaded with risk. One concern is that 1031 investors have been jumping into TICs too quickly — focusing on the benefit of deferring capital gains taxes without fully considering the ramifications of making a bad real estate investment.

    The biggest pitfall associated with a TIC investment relates to the exit strategy. The property needs to be sold or refinanced at the end of the holding period, which is typically between five and seven years. Ideally, owners are hoping for a gain, but the challenge for some may be preventing a loss.

    Just to break even, a TIC property needs to be sold for the original purchase price plus the up-front fees associated with TICs. Those fees can be costly, ranging between 8 percent and 12 percent of the original sale price depending on the sponsor. “The risk, particularly if cap rates move up, is that the exit price is not achieved,” says Keith Braddish, a senior director at New York-based CBRE/Melody. The firm provides mortgage debt and bridge equity for TIC sponsors.

    The other option for pulling equity out of a property is to refinance. However, that also could be difficult in the future, particularly for properties that are paying interest only and have not made a dent in the loan value. Many of the recent and current TIC deals have been able to secure record-low rates between 5 percent and 6 percent, Braddish notes, and and it’s anyone’s guess as to where interest rates will be in a few years.

    In addition, TICs have been widely criticized for their lack of liquidity. There is no established secondary market for the resale of TIC ownership. TICs are usually set up with right of first refusal, which allow existing owners to buy out another investor who might choose to sell his or her stake prior to the sale of a property, Braddish notes.

    So far, incidents where owners have wanted to sell early have been rare, and those that have sold have found eager buyers within their own group. Nevertheless, the fear is that if a TIC property is not performing up to expectations, an owner may have to sell for a discount or be stuck with his or her ownership in the property.

    All the risks laid out in that story have come to pass. It could prove to be a very dicey time for TICs. Even the Tenant-in-Common Association changed its name in June. It’s now the Real Estate Investment Securities Association and has a broader mandate now, not limiting itself to TICs.

    The most egregious case to emerge so far of alleged abuse is that of DBSI Inc.

    The Idaho-based firm actually controlled two companies–Spectrus, which sold TICs as real estate, and DBSI Securities, which sold them as securities. DBSI was forced into bankruptcy last November. And stories like this have emerged.

    Dykstra is one of about 500 Minnesotans and 8,000 investors nationwide whose finances have been ravaged by the collapse of DBSI Inc., an Idaho company that specialized in supposedly worry-free real estate investments. Investors like Dykstra bought a small piece of an office building or shopping center from DBSI in exchange for “guaranteed” annual returns of 6 to 10 percent, depending on the property.

    With cash from these investors, DBSI assembled a portfolio of more than 240 properties nationwide, worth an estimated $2.6 billion. But last fall, the private company abruptly stopped paying investors and filed for bankruptcy. Thousands of people, many of them retirees, found themselves paying lawyers and dealing with far-flung properties they knew little about.

    So is there a future for TICs? Or was the structure a product of the frothy market conditions prior to 2007? In the best of times, TICs offered smaller investors another way to buy into commercial property or for investors in smaller properties to pool funds and buy larger ones. Is there still demand for this kind of structure going forward? Or will we see TICs fade?

    Ross, Soros Slam Commercial Real Estate; New Bank Guidelines (Monday’s News & Notes)

    I’m in need of some desperate catching up. There was a bunch of big headlines about the commercial real estate crash. The latest to talk about the impending doom in commercial real estate were Wilbur Ross who sees a “huge crash in commercial real estate coming” and George Soros, who talked of a “bloodletting yet to come.”

    As Square Feet blog pointed out:

    “In commercial real estate and leveraged buyouts, the bloodletting is yet to come,” Soros said today during a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, where he was born. “These factors will continue to weigh on the American economy, and the American consumer will no longer be able to serve as the motor for the world economy.”

    Really? The bloodletting is yet to come?

    We’ve had bankruptcies, bank failures, properties given back to lenders, collapsed property values and all sorts of other nastiness. The bloodletting began a while ago and is continuing. There is more pain to come, but I continue to be mystified by the notion that’s out there where it seems like people think that commercial real estate has skated along unscathed for years and will face a tortured future. The past year was pretty awful. The present isn’t much better. But in some ways–the new rules easing commercial loan modifications, the fact that REITs stand on much stronger financial footing than even six months ago, the expansion of TARP to cover commercial real estate–the sector’s outlook seems less ominous than it did this time last year.

    The biggest issue I have with all of this is that there doesn’t seem to be any sense of where we are in the process. Some talk about an impending crash–as if we haven’t already seen a downturn in the sector for nearly two years.

    Then again, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner talked up the economy’s ability to handle any hits it takes from commercial real estate. That’s basically what I’ve been arguing. However, given Geithner’s record so far, perhaps I need to rethink my position.

    Regardless, here are a slew of headlines from the past few days to consider.

    • There are two Business Insider posts worth looking at. For one, three of the nine banks that failed on Friday collapsed because of commercial real estate debt. A second post looks at how new rules will mean commercial real estate losses won’t show up on bank balance sheets for a while. Essentially mark-to-market rules have been suspended. So banks won’t have to writedown the value of commercial real estate debt, which most assuredly has some losses in due to deteriorating fundamentals and collapsing property values. Will this just suspend the agony for banks by pushing back the date on which they have to deal with these loans? Or will it buy banks time to wait for commercial real estate to recover in some way? The Associated Press has a good writeup of the new guidelines as well.
    • Todd Sullivan wrote a lengthy post examining the banks various options in dealing with GGP’s debt and how that relates to whether it’s worth taking a shot on GGP’s stock. In part because of the rule mentioned above, Todd sees banks continuing to grant GGP extensions on its debt. Therefore, he doesn’t see massive defaults in GGP’s future nor does he see private equity coming in and buying the debt from banks at a discounted price. Banks will extend because it’s their only option to avoid massive writedowns in regards to GGP’s debt. Because of all this, Sullivan sees GGP’s share prices jumping to the double-digits as these extensions start coming.
    • There’s been a ton of back and forth all year on lease modifications. Are they happening on a large scale or not? Developers Diversified has reiterated all year that it is holding the line. The latest numbers are quoted here where the company says it has received 900 lease modification requests and granted just 41.
    • Here are two pieces from CoStar. The first looks at some banks’ seeming ho hum attitude towards commercial real estate. Is it all talk? Or do they have a handle on any problems that may emerge? The second story is a rundown of the third quarter for retail real estate. Overall, it was better than the first two quarters of the year, but it’s not time to celebrate yet.