Archive for March, 2010

Elizabeth Warren Has Major Concerns about CRE

Elizabeth Warren remains extremely concerned about the refinancing risk inherent in commercial real estate. The thoughts here pick up on what was laid out in the February Congressional Oversight Panel on Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability report. Warren is worried about midsized banks–about 3,000 of them–that have “dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending.”

Who Are the Top Brands in Commercial Real Estate?

The Lipsey Co. recently announced its annual look at the Top 25 Brands in Commercial Real Estate.

The rankings themselves “reflect the ballots, informal focus groups, and opinions from a variety of sources made up of more than 50,000 practitioners and industry leaders from REITs, Institutions, Mortgage Bankers, Commercial Brokers, Asset Managers, Property Managers and related professionals we surveyed and interviewed.”

The PDF in the last link above includes blurbs on each company as well as how this year’s ranking compares to last year. Here’s the list. It’s mostly brokerage firms. One retail REIT cracks the top 25. We’ll give you one guess as to who that is.

Commercial Real Estate Top Brands

1. CB Richard Ellis
2t. Colliers International
2t. Cushman & Wakefield
3. Jones Lang LaSalle
4. NAI Global
5. Coldwell Banker Commercial
6. Grubb & Ellis
7. CRESA Partners
8. ONCOR International
9. Cassidy Turley
10. CORFAC International
11. Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate Advisors
12. TCN Worldwide Real Estate
13. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services
14. CoStar
15. LoopNet
16. ProLogis
17. Equity Office Properties
18. Transwestern Commercial Services
19. Newmark Knight Frank
20. Lee & Associates
21. Studley
22. RREEF Real Estate
23. Hines Interest
24. Duke Realty
25t. Simon Property Group
25t. DTZ Holdings
25t. Tishman Speyer
25t. AMB Property
25t. First Industrial Realty Trust
25t. Prudential Financial

Sales Recover; Best Buy Opening Stores; Gap Developing New Concept (Wednesday News & Notes)

Things are starting to look a bit brighter on the retail front.

Best Buy sees a strong year ahead and is planning on opening 50 to 55 large-format stores and 75 to 100 small-format stores in the U.S. It also plans to open 10 to 15 stores in China.

Indeed, strong sales at the retailer are one reason economists are optimistic about the recovery in retail sales in recent weeks. For example, ICSC economist Michael Niemira points to the recent gains as a result of “pent-up consumer demand.”

The rebound in wealth will boost consumer spending “notably” this year, Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York, wrote in a March 12 report. He sees consumption climbing 2.2 percent this year after falling 0.6 percent in 2009, its biggest decline since 1974. Spending rose 0.3 percent in February, the fifth consecutive month of increases, the Commerce Department said today.

Shares of consumer-oriented companies have surged as sales strengthened. The XLY, or Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-traded fund that includes retailers, restaurant chains and hotel companies, has risen 105 percent since the March 9, 2009, low. The fund has outperformed the S&P 500 since late March last year, as investors placed bullish bets on consumers.

And that’s not the only area where there’s been strength. Sales in the teen segment have also been strong.

But now teen shoppers are making a comeback. For two months in a row, teen retailers have soared past sales expectations. Notably, Abercrombie & Fitch Co., known for its sexy advertising and casual-but-pricey fashions, snapped its 20-month streak of negative sales with an 8% increase in January.

Teens are hanging out at the mall after school again, goofing around with friends in dressing rooms, snacking on junk food at the food court — and giving retailers hope that they’ll help kick-start a greater wave of spending industrywide.

“Whether it be sports equipment, whether it be athletic footwear, whether it be fashion, whether it be electronics, the teen market is showing signs of life and positive growth,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at market research firm NPD Group.

In another sign that things may potentially be turning around Gap Inc., which in recent years has struggled to re-find the mojo that propelled its meteoric rise up the retail ranks, has got a new concept it is testing. Will this be a hit? Gap acquired the Athleta brand in September 2008 for $150 million. The concept sells athlete-oriented women’s activewear online. Now Gap is preparing to test Athleta stores in the San Francisco Bay Area, according to an online job posting. The first one is planned to open in Strawberry Village Shopping Center in Mill Valley in late spring.

Still, even with all this seeming good news, there remain hiccups. Talbot’s, for example, has extended the deadline for a warrant-exchange offer that it needs to close before the company can pull the trigger on a planned $350 million private-equity-backed merger.

In other news, General Growth won an extension on a $1.5 billion loan, which will now be due in 2016.

American Apparel Falling Off the Pedestal

A one-time darling of the U.S. retail industry, American Apparel is reportedly going through some tough times, according to a story in The New York Post. Just last week, the company reported that profit in the fourth quarter of 2009 fell by more than 20 percent. Sales for the first quarter of this year are expected to be down 10 percent on a year-over-year basis.
Some of the company’s fans would like to blame its lackluster performance on the tight financial controls exercised by American Apparel’s private equity stakeholder Lion Capital, which is reportedly preventing the chain from investing in new technology and equipment. But does anyone out there think American Apparel’s product selection is to blame? There are several American Apparel stores near Retail Traffic’s office in Chelsea and I visit them from time to time. Not once in the past four years have my visits ended in an actual purchase. There is nothing wrong with the merchandise per se: we all know it’s basic t-shirts and tunics and leggings. But when there are about 20 other stores within a five-block radius that sell exactly the same thing, often at lower prices, and often in a more compelling store environment, why shop at American Apparel?
What does everyone else think? Will American Apparel survive its rough patch? Does it have to reposition itself? Would you take a bet on them as a tenant right now?

New Players Emerge in General Growth Saga; Lampert is Stuck with Sears (Thursday New & Notes)

It’s largely been a slow week on the retail real estate front. But today did bring with it a development in the General Growth bankruptcy. It seems that the interested parties are waiting for more details from General Growth before reevaluating any offers. Moreover, new parties are in the mix–Elliott Management Corp. and Paulson & Co. They both might be willing to help fund General Growth’s exit from bankruptcy. But it appears that Simon may also be courting Elliot to join its bid. The intrigue builds.

Here are some other news and notes.

  • Bloomberg looked at how Eddie Lampert’s bet on Sears isn’t working out so well since he’s now stuck owning the retailer and its real estate in an economy where consumer spending is down and real estate values have dropped precipitously.
  • Our sister publication NREI has up a new podcast with John B. Levy that examines the state of lending on commercial real estate.
  • The AIA billings index showed work contracting in February, although the reading was up from January.
  • Zale is considering a proposal from Sun Capital Partners, according to the New York Post.
  • Lastly, Target Corp. lost a bid to avoid a lawsuit over its role in the sale of the Mervyn’s department-store chain, according to the Wall Street Journal. It may now face claims from creditors to chain, which was liquidated.

Retailers Look to Pare Back Space; Apple As a New York Landmark (Tuesday’s News & Notes)

A big theme in coming years could be retailers looking to cut back on their store sizes while simultaneously looking to reduce rental rates. That’s at least the conclusion you would draw from two stories in today’s roundup.

Retailers Look At Smaller Spaces; New Survey Shows Investor Optimism (Friday’s News & Notes)

With General Growth and Simon Property Group toning down their public barbs for a while (as General Growth works on its reorganization plan), the retail real estate universe has been relatively quiet this week. So the stories we’re seeing are more about long-term trends rather than breaking news flashes. One article, for example, talks about how retailers are looking to downsize their real estate portfolios by cutting down on average store size. Another looks at a survey of commercial real estate investors and their outlook on the performance of the CRE market in the coming year. For these and other stories about retail and retail real estate, follow the links below:

  • The Wall Street Journal reports that many national apparel chains would like to decrease their store size in an effort to improve efficiency.
  • A new survey from PricewaterhouseCoopers shows investors expect cap rates to remain stable through 2010, according to the CoStar Group.
  • A story in The Los Angeles Times reveals Sears will post thousands of job ads on Twitter in an effort to promote its brand.
  • Our sister publication Supermarket News reports that after a year of deep price-cutting, supermarket chains expect a stabilization in pricing in 2010.

Barnes & Noble Appoints New CEO With E-Commerce Background

Barnes & Noble’s announcement this morning of a reshuffling in its top management ranks can be taken as a sign of the retailer’s committment to tweaking its business model to fit the changing times. As former CEO Steve Riggio moves to the position of vice chairman, the company will be led by new CEO William Lynch, who has served as president of Barnes & Noble’s Web site division since February of last year.
Lynch reportedly has had limited experience in the book selling business prior to joining Barnes & Noble, but he has a solid footing in e-commerce, having worked at HSN.com, Gifts.com and other e-commerce channels. Last year, he helped launch the nook, Barnes & Noble’s e-reader, to help the company compete with one of its main rivals, Amazon.com. His appointment to the CEO post makes clear that Barnes & Noble is ready to take on one of the biggest threats to its business: consumers’ growing reliance on electronic reading devices such as Amazon.com’s Kindle. Selling paper books through brick-and-mortar stores just won’t cut it anymore.
The fact that Barnes & Noble understands the dangers its facing and is willing to do something about it is an encouraging sign that it might be able to survive through a fundamental shift in the book selling business. If history has proved anything it’s that retailers too slow to acknowledge threats posed by new electronic devices eventually disappear from the landscape. We saw it first with the emergence of the iPod and other MP3 players, when a host of venerable music chains, including Virgin Megastores and Tower Records, went belly up. And it’s happening right this moment with movie rental chains. Movie Gallery filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. Raise your hand if you think it will ever emerge from Chapter 11. Even the sector’s number one player Blockbuster is considering filing, after the retailer was too late to respond to the convenience offered by online DVD rental service Netflix and DVD kiosk operator Redbox.
So Barnes & Noble’s desire to concentrate on its e-commerce division in the coming years makes plenty of sense. Personally, I’ve always loved both B&N and its main rival Borders, not just for the wide assortment of books they sell, but for the experience they offer inside their stores, where you can linger for hours leafing through the pages and drinking coffee without feeling the pressure to “buy or get out.” Here’s hoping both retailers will stay around for the long term.

Blockbuster Eyes Bankruptcy; Dunkin’ Donuts Tracks Twitter Impact (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

The news on store closings and openings continues to pile up. While there is significantly less bad news out there than there was at this time last year, some chains just don’t seem to be on solid footing and it might not be due solely to the recent recession. For instance, movie rental chain Blockbuster is suffering from overleverage, but its operating model may also be outdated at a time when movie downloads can be just a few mouse clicks away. As a result, the company is seriously considering bankruptcy.

For more on this and other news from the worlds of retail and retail real estate, follow the links below:

  • Barron’s reports that Blockbuster may have to file for bankruptcy protection as it struggles with increasing competition.
  • As its leases start to expire over the next year or so, Williams-Sonoma plans to renegotiate rents and close some stores in the larger urban markets, according to Home Furnishings Business.
  • As more retailers continue to embrace social networking as a way to drive sales, the industry struggles to find a way to measure the impact from postings on sites such as Twitter and Facebook. Boston Business Journal reports that in an effort to solve this problem, Dunkin’ Donuts started tracking sales resulting from its Twitter updates.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports that Kimco Realty Corp. is considering pulling out of a mixed-use development in Harlem, after being unable to secure its desired tenants. Back in 2007, when Kimco initially conceived the project, inner-city development was all the rage.
  • There might be more mall forclosures to come, according to a story in the Daily Herald.
  • Boston.com reports that Filene’s Basement and Syms continue to open joint locations. The latest will be in Norwood, Mass.
  • General Growth started sorting its assets into stable and risky investments, in line with its proposed reorganization plan, reports the Chicago Tribune.

Simon Plans to Raise Its Offer for General Growth

After insisting it doesn’t feel any pressure to up its offer for General Growth Properties just a few days ago, Simon Property Group has changed its tune.

According to a story in the The New York Times, sources close to the two companies said Simon sent General Growth a letter Monday night promising to put in a new bid in the near future. There is no word yet on what the new offer might be, but given the very public nature of Simon’s and General Growth’s relationship right now, we probably won’t have to wait long to find out. Stay tuned.