Archive for March 31st, 2010

Elizabeth Warren Has Major Concerns about CRE

Elizabeth Warren remains extremely concerned about the refinancing risk inherent in commercial real estate. The thoughts here pick up on what was laid out in the February Congressional Oversight Panel on Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability report. Warren is worried about midsized banks–about 3,000 of them–that have “dangerous concentrations in commercial real estate lending.”

Who Are the Top Brands in Commercial Real Estate?

The Lipsey Co. recently announced its annual look at the Top 25 Brands in Commercial Real Estate.

The rankings themselves “reflect the ballots, informal focus groups, and opinions from a variety of sources made up of more than 50,000 practitioners and industry leaders from REITs, Institutions, Mortgage Bankers, Commercial Brokers, Asset Managers, Property Managers and related professionals we surveyed and interviewed.”

The PDF in the last link above includes blurbs on each company as well as how this year’s ranking compares to last year. Here’s the list. It’s mostly brokerage firms. One retail REIT cracks the top 25. We’ll give you one guess as to who that is.

Commercial Real Estate Top Brands

1. CB Richard Ellis
2t. Colliers International
2t. Cushman & Wakefield
3. Jones Lang LaSalle
4. NAI Global
5. Coldwell Banker Commercial
6. Grubb & Ellis
7. CRESA Partners
8. ONCOR International
9. Cassidy Turley
10. CORFAC International
11. Sperry Van Ness Commercial Real Estate Advisors
12. TCN Worldwide Real Estate
13. Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services
14. CoStar
15. LoopNet
16. ProLogis
17. Equity Office Properties
18. Transwestern Commercial Services
19. Newmark Knight Frank
20. Lee & Associates
21. Studley
22. RREEF Real Estate
23. Hines Interest
24. Duke Realty
25t. Simon Property Group
25t. DTZ Holdings
25t. Tishman Speyer
25t. AMB Property
25t. First Industrial Realty Trust
25t. Prudential Financial

Sales Recover; Best Buy Opening Stores; Gap Developing New Concept (Wednesday News & Notes)

Things are starting to look a bit brighter on the retail front.

Best Buy sees a strong year ahead and is planning on opening 50 to 55 large-format stores and 75 to 100 small-format stores in the U.S. It also plans to open 10 to 15 stores in China.

Indeed, strong sales at the retailer are one reason economists are optimistic about the recovery in retail sales in recent weeks. For example, ICSC economist Michael Niemira points to the recent gains as a result of “pent-up consumer demand.”

The rebound in wealth will boost consumer spending “notably” this year, Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital in New York, wrote in a March 12 report. He sees consumption climbing 2.2 percent this year after falling 0.6 percent in 2009, its biggest decline since 1974. Spending rose 0.3 percent in February, the fifth consecutive month of increases, the Commerce Department said today.

Shares of consumer-oriented companies have surged as sales strengthened. The XLY, or Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund, an exchange-traded fund that includes retailers, restaurant chains and hotel companies, has risen 105 percent since the March 9, 2009, low. The fund has outperformed the S&P 500 since late March last year, as investors placed bullish bets on consumers.

And that’s not the only area where there’s been strength. Sales in the teen segment have also been strong.

But now teen shoppers are making a comeback. For two months in a row, teen retailers have soared past sales expectations. Notably, Abercrombie & Fitch Co., known for its sexy advertising and casual-but-pricey fashions, snapped its 20-month streak of negative sales with an 8% increase in January.

Teens are hanging out at the mall after school again, goofing around with friends in dressing rooms, snacking on junk food at the food court — and giving retailers hope that they’ll help kick-start a greater wave of spending industrywide.

“Whether it be sports equipment, whether it be athletic footwear, whether it be fashion, whether it be electronics, the teen market is showing signs of life and positive growth,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at market research firm NPD Group.

In another sign that things may potentially be turning around Gap Inc., which in recent years has struggled to re-find the mojo that propelled its meteoric rise up the retail ranks, has got a new concept it is testing. Will this be a hit? Gap acquired the Athleta brand in September 2008 for $150 million. The concept sells athlete-oriented women’s activewear online. Now Gap is preparing to test Athleta stores in the San Francisco Bay Area, according to an online job posting. The first one is planned to open in Strawberry Village Shopping Center in Mill Valley in late spring.

Still, even with all this seeming good news, there remain hiccups. Talbot’s, for example, has extended the deadline for a warrant-exchange offer that it needs to close before the company can pull the trigger on a planned $350 million private-equity-backed merger.

In other news, General Growth won an extension on a $1.5 billion loan, which will now be due in 2016.