Archive for July, 2011

Back to the Future?

Retail industry insiders are noticing an unexpected shift: smaller, independent booksellers have begun to prosper now that the big-box operators are struggling. An article in Fortune makes the case that some of the Waldenbooks spaces could be backfilled by the independents.

The mom-and-pop operators would also make a good fit for college campus Borders, helping both bridge the gap in bricks-and-mortar bookselling and provide laid off Borders staffers with potential new jobs.

In fact, we hear that independent booksellers do seem to be making a comeback. Booksellers now frequently become “incubator” tenants at malls and shopping centers, according to executives with Levin Management Corp., a third party property management provider. And because of their smaller inventory and often niche offering, they are able to find more success with shoppers than the sprawling mega-boxes that can feel overwhelming, notes Jeff Green, a retail real estate consultant.

We’d be curious to know what the property owners and managers out there think. Are independent bookstores the way of the future?

Now You See it, Now You Don’t–Borders Deal Falls Through

As Borders announced its liquidation early last week, reports surfaced that Books-a-Million, a rival bricks-and-mortar book seller, wanted to purchase up to 35 of its remaining stores.

The deal would have helped to cut down the amount of space Borders is about to dump on the market and saved some of its landlords the headache of searching for an alternate tenant.

Unfortunately, the deal is now off, according to a report in The Detroit News.

The two booksellers apparently couldn’t come to an agreement before Borders’ going-out-of-business sale began last week.

“We worked exhaustively in an effort to acquire these stores and reach agreements with all of the parties whose consent was necessary,” Books-A-Million CEO Clyde B. Anderson said in a statement late Monday. “Unfortunately, we were unsuccessful.”

The nixed sale won’t necessarily stop Books-a-Million from leasing former Borders locations directly from their landlords. For example, Cafaro Company, an Ohio-based privately held mall owner, has just signed a deal with Books-a-Million to go into eight of its malls independelty of the Books-a-Million/Borders negotiations, according to a release the firm sent out this week.

The stores range from 2,300 to 20,000 square feet and include locations in Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa. Books-a-Million plans to open at Cafaro’s properties in the fall.

Everybody’s Lovin’ Dunkin’

Investors are showing a great deal of confidence in Dunkin’ Brands and its potential for growth. Yesterday, the firm, currently owned by the private equity consortium of Bain Capital Partners, Carlyle Group and THL Partners, filed for its long-awaited IPO.

Even in a market that hasn’t favored public offerings, Dunkin’s owners were able to price the coffee chain/ice cream shop operator at $19 per share, above the expected range and the offering is already oversubscribed, at 22.25 million shares.

Dunkin’s main appeal lies in the fact that the chain has yet to create a sizable presence on the West Coast of the United States. In recent years, as consumers have become more price-conscious, Dunkin’ made significant headway in its competition with Starbucks for the top spot in the U.S. coffee wars. But it has no presence in states like California and Washington, which remain Starbucks’ territory–at least for now.

According to an analyst quoted in the New York Times story:

“Part of the attraction of Dunkin’ Donuts is that there is significant opportunity for store openings,” said Bart Glenn, an analyst with D. A. Davidson & Company who also covers Starbucks, a Dunkin’ rival. “Dunkin’ has broad customer appeal, and they’ve done a good job of delivering high quality coffee.”

Update:

Dunkin’ shares are now trading at $25 apiece.

CoStar’s CCRSI Index Posts an Increase in Retail Sales

costar_7142011_index
CoStar released the latest results from its Commercial Repeat Sale Index (CCRSI), which shows that May was a very good month for commercial investment sales transactions.

Overall sale pair dollar volume rose 150 percent year-over-year, with retail sales increasing 23 percent. The index tracks repeat sales of properties as a base. In May, CoStar recorded 829 repeat sale transactions. (You can find the methodology for CoStar’s Index here).

Investment grade property sales volume also continued to rise significantly in May 2011 increasing more than 191 percent on a year-over-year basis. As a result, investment grade sales volume comprised 79. percent of total May sales volume, up substantially from 61.9 percent in April 2011.

Average deal sizes also continue to rise. According to CoStar, the average investment grade deal size in May 2011 was $33.2 million, nearly double the April 2011 average transaction size of $16.9 million. The average dollar size for the general index was $1.7 million in May 2011 as compared to the average April 2011
transaction size of $1.65 million.

costar_retail_7142011_index

What’s more, only 26.7 percent of retail sales pairs recorded in May were distressed.

As a result of improving market conditions, CoStar’s CCRSI Index rose 1.6 percent in May, though it is still 34.4 percent below its peak, recorded in August 2007.

The improvement in the investment sales market for commercial properties is largely due to where we are in the real estate cycle, according to Chris Macke, CoStar’s senior real estate strategist. According to a presentation he gave this afternoon:

There are a number of transactions out there where people are making some great buys and people are making some great sales. Timing is just as critical as [location].

Liquidation Threat for Borders?

When Borders filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, few people expected it to survive long-term, but the chain might be gone faster than most suspected.

Yesterday, Borders’ unsecured creditors’ committee declined to make Najafi Companies, owner of Book-of-the-Month Club, as Borders’ stalking-horse bidder. The creditors were apparently worried that Najafi was going to buy the chain on the cheap and then liquidate it without any benefit to them.

The firm was offering about $215 million for the company, plus assumption of about $220 million in debt.

What’s worse, as of today, the only other entity known to have expressed interest in buying Borders has been a partnership between the Gordon Brothers Group and Hilco. Both of those firms specialize in liquidation rather than keeping companies as operating concerns. The rejection of Najafi means that when Borders starts its court-appointed auction on July 19, Gordon Brothers and Hilco will be the preferred bidders.

Below is an outtake from an internal memo sent by Borders president Mike Edwards:

Under the previously announced sale process, Borders had two alternate options for a Stalking Horse bidder: the Najafi proposal, or a group including Hilco and Gordon Brothers, who would purchase the store assets of the business and undertake an orderly wind-down. Late this afternoon, Najafi informed us that they have decided to withdraw as the stalking horse proposal, and therefore we will submit the Hilco and Gordon Brothers proposal to the Court for the purposes of serving as the Stalking Horse bidder at the auction next week.

While we regret Najafi’s withdrawal as the Stalking Horse bidder, we remain hopeful that they or other potential bidders who are interested in operating Borders as a going concern will choose to participate in the auction process on July 19.

If Borders liquidates in the next few months, it will deliver a serious blow to power center landlords, who have not yet completely recovered from the bankruptcies of Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things two years earlier.

Today, Borders operates 399 stores. Some of those are in great locations and might be snapped up by other retailers. But there are still few tenants in the market looking to take large chunks of space and the liquidation will likely lead to an uptick in loan defaults for some owners.

More on Apple’s Power

Just in time to give more credence to the idea that mall landlords should give Apple stores anchor status, new research claims the chain accounted for an astounding one-fifth of all sales growth by U.S. publicly traded retailers in the first three months of the year.

According to a story in USA Today, Apple’s sales rose 80 percent year-over-year during the period from January through March, or by $4.6 billion, and they will likely keep that pace for the foreseeable future.

Apple sales are rising sharply outside the U.S. as well. In the Asia-Pacific region, sales rose 151% to $4.7 billion in the quarter that ended March 26. Europe sales were up 49% to $6 billion.

Analysts expect Apple’s sales to keep growing at a double-digit pace for the next few years. Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu thinks Apple can achieve a 20% average revenue growth rate for the next five years, even without the introduction of new products.

Meanwhile, Apple seems to be exploring a new expansion strategy that could potentially pay off in spades. So far, the chain has mainly taken locations on high streets in major cities and in class-A malls. Now, Apple appears to be in discussion with at least two universities to operate within campus bookstores.

Earlier this year, Apple has been rumored to negotiate a deal with Yale University to occupy a former Barnes & Noble space there. Now, it might be looking to execute similar leases with Fairfield University in Connecticut and the University of Delaware.

It’s unclear at this point whether Apple wants to simply take over vacant university bookstore spaces or operate stores-within-stores with university booksellers or both. The deals in Connecticut and Delaware seem to involve taking space within an operating bookstore. Either way, given the multitudes of college campuses in the U.S. and Apple’s popularity with the college crowd, this might lead to dozens, if not hundreds, new Apple locations.

How Old Navy is Getting Its Groove Back

old_navy_super_cute_jennieGap Inc.’s Old Navy chain has undergone a bit of a transformation in recent years, most notably by following in the footsteps of other big-box operators with shrinking square footage.

That hasn’t been the only change at the stores, however. Old Navy executives point out that they’ve been able to get customers to spend $1 to $2 more per shopping trip by focusing more sharply on who the chain’s customer actually is and trying to gear the stores toward that person.

To that end, in 2008, Old Navy came up with a fictional “Jenny,” a young, busy middle-class mother. At first, Jenny was used as an internal tool to create a clear image of the chain’s customer. By now, she has become an official marketing tool, appearing in new TV ads.

Unlike the younger customers that Old Navy went after in the mid-2000s with its up-to-the-moment fashions, Jenny wants to be able to buy classic casual wear, like capri pants and t-shirts. She is looking to buy clothes for her family at affordable prices.

Jenny also wants to get in and out of the store quickly, so Old Navy’s recent remodels have involved creating a race-track layout for the stores, where Jenny could see the merchandise from the entrance to the back of the building.

And in an effort to take advantage of Jenny’s nostalgia for her 1980s childhood, Old Navy started using the check-out line as a way to hawk various 1980’s-inspired knick-knacks, like freeze-dried astronaut’s ice cream. The strategy is similar to what supermarket chains have been doing for years, by displaying tabloid magazines and candy near the cash register, so the customer buys those items on impulse while waiting in line.

So far, the new layout has proved successful enough that Gap Inc. has decided to revamp most of its Old Navy fleet to fit the new model. From 2008 through the end of 2010, the company completed remodels at about a third of its more than 1,000 Old Navy stores. This year, it will remodel another 100.

In fact, focusing on who their core customer is might be a good way for other retailers to make themselves more relevant. In recent past, many chains, including Gap, have tried to be all things to all people–a trend that many retail experts warned would lead to trouble. But differentiation might be what works best in a world saturated with retail options.

High Gas Prices Help Boost June Same-Store Sales

June same-store sales outpaced Wall Street estimates and rose by 6.5 percent, according to the Thomson Reuters Same-Store Sales Index. Analysts had been expecting a gain of 4.9 percent.

June typically is a clearance month and consumers are still shopping for bargains.
One of the strongest performances came from Limited, which hosted a semi-annual sale at its Victoria’s Secret stores. Limited’s same-store sales rose 12 percent in June, blowing past the 3.8 percent average analyst estimate reported by Thomson Reuters.

Discounters Target, Costco and BJ’s Wholesale also topped estimates.

Target said same-store sales rose 4.5 percent in June, far above the 3.2 percent analyst estimate.
According to Target, the result was at the “high end” of its own internal expectations, and was helped by an increase in the size of the transactions shoppers made.

In a recorded message, Target said it expects July same-store sales results to rise in the low- to mid-single digits. Inventories were in “very good condition” at the end of June, according to the retailer.

Despite the numbers, as I’ve written in other monthly roundups, it’s important that we remember that the pool of retailers that still report same-store sales numbers is considerably smaller than it once was. Less than 30 retailers use the metric (down from more than 70 a few years ago). Wal-Mart stores, which singlehandedly accounts for roughly 5 percent to 6 percent of the overall retail pie, only reports quarterly figures today. And it has reported comparable store sales declines (excluding fuel sales) for eight straight quarters.

Were they still in the monthly matrix, the figures would look quite a bit different.

My look inside the monthly reports is after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »

CoStar’s First Look at Q2 Numbers Shows Continued Recovery

With the second quarter in the books, early indications are that the retail sector continued its recovery.

CoStar’s first look report said that the retail real estate market has now experienced eight straight quarters of positive net absorption resulting in a cumulative 99 million square feet absorption.

The overall vacancy rate remained steady at 7.1 percent.

Click for larger image.
costar_q22011_total_vacancy

National Highlights

  • Second quarter net absorption increased to 11.1M square feet, 700,000 square feet more than the previous quarter’s net absorption of 10.4 square feet. This, however, remains well below the robust fourth quarter net absorption rate of more than 26.5M square feet. The two year average net absorption rate is 12.4M square feet.
  • The national retail vacancy rate remained steady at 7.1% in large part due to a 40-year record
    low amount of new retail square footage completed, 7.4M square feet
  • New retail deliveries will be minimal for the foreseeable future as retail space under construction
    in the second quarter totaled 26.8M square feet. This compares to more than 145M square feet
    of retail space under construction in the second quarter of 2008.
  • The national retail rental rate declined to $14.74 per square foot from $14.84 per square foot in
    the first quarter. While record low new supply has stabilized the retail vacancy rate rental rates
    won’t increase until retail demand increases which would require significant increases in hiring
    and wage growth.

Click for larger image.
costar_q22011_absorption

Property Type Highlights

  • Lifestyle centers continued to suffer the largest rental rate declines with second quarter rental
    rates declining $.94 from the first quarter rental rate.
  • Lifestyle centers also suffered the largest quarterly increase in vacancy rate increase from 8.6%
    in the first quarter to 8.9% in the second quarter.
  • Due to the continued weak performance of Lifestyle centers the spread in rental rates between
    Lifestyle centers and malls has declined from more than a 56% rental rate premium for Lifestyle
    centers in the first quarter of 2008 to less than a 30% premium today. This is due largely to two
    factors. First, aggressive building of lifestyle centers during the last decade continues to haunt
    Lifestyle centers as they are forced to trade occupancy for reduced retailer quality and reduced
    rents. Conversely, malls significantly reduced their rate of new construction in the last
    decade building less than 40% of the mall square footage built in the 1970’s.