Archive for the ‘Development’ Category

Early Holiday Shopping; Microsoft’s New Stores; Eddie Bauer Update (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

There have been a handful of reports about the back-to-school shopping season seemingly starting early. Here’s an example of a local news broadcast on that topic.

However, that’s nothing compared to what some retailers are doing. The Washington Post has a piece today about some retailers getting the holiday shopping season going.

A small display of snow-topped villages and ornaments sits nestled between the mattress and hardware departments at the Sears store in Manassas. Next week, Toys R Us stores in the area are inviting children to decorate Christmas cards and slurp away on candy canes while their parents shop Christmas sales.

Yes, it’s July, but some stores have decided that to get ahead of the poor economy they need to start now on the holiday shopping season.

The holiday shopping season seems to eat up a larger and larger percentage of the calendar each year. It’s no longer November through early January. Two years ago, retailers started the holiday shopping season in October. Last year, it started even earlier with retailers beginning their marketing efforts in September. Now we’ve truly got Christmas in July. Amazing.

Here are some other news and notes on retail and retail real estate from around the Web today.

  • According to Supermarket News, Food Lion is joining the green parade. The company is planning a LEED-certified store in South Carolina. It will be the first LEED-certified grocery store in the state.
  • Microsoft continues to move ahead with its plan to open brick-and-mortar stores. CNET tells us the first locations will open this fall. It originally announced its intentions in February. There’s a nice video below that illustrates the concept.
    • The New York Times looked at how luxury stores have started discount advertising, creating competition between chains you’d never previously lump together. For example, Saks and Neiman Marcus now have ads that put them in the same league as Daffy’s.
    • The New York Post had an update on Eddie Bauer’s plight. Liquidation may be possible for the chain. “Monarch Alternative Capital and Anchorage Advisors — a pair of New York hedge funds that together control Eddie Bauer’s $200 million in debt — aim to convert Eddie Bauer into a Web-based business to sell outdoor clothing and other licensed products, sources told The Post.”
    • Target is now backing up Wal-Mart’s position on health care.
    • H&M is showing some weakness. Same-store sales fell 5 percent in June compared to a 2 percent drop in the same period last year.
    • The Wall Street Journal looked at what the crisis at Opus means for other private developers.
    • There are two good pieces from our sister publication NREI as well. A column from W. Joseph Caton looks at potential buyers of distressed debt. Another piece looks at how property managers are fighting to keep tenants.

    CIT Group’s Effect on Retail; TALF Update; Basha’s Bankruptcy (Monday’s News & Notes)

    CIT Group has been the big financial story the last few days. The latest news is pretty grim. Bankruptcy appears imminent and “the cost of insuring its debt spiked, its short-dated bonds have plunged, and Moody’s slashed the lender’s credit ratings by four notches to the brink of highly speculative territory.”

    CIT is a lender to nearly a million mostly small and midsize businesses and companies. Bloomberg has a good article up looking at the implications a CIT bankruptcy would have on other companies. The firm claims its demise “would put 760 manufacturing clients at risk of failure and “precipitate a crisis” for as many as 300,000 retailers.”

    A collapse would ripple across the “small and medium-sized businesses who rely on CIT to operate — to pay their vendors, ship goods to their customers and make their payroll,” the New York-based lender said in internal documents obtained by Bloomberg News that make the case for its importance to the U.S. economy. CIT spokesman Curt Ritter declined to comment on the documents.

    CIT executives spoke with regulators during the past two days, according to a person familiar with the talks, after its bonds and shares tumbled on concern that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. won’t allow the lender into its bond-guarantee program created last year to unfreeze debt markets. CIT may default as soon as April, when a $2.1 billion credit line matures, according to Fitch Ratings.

    “A CIT default would create liquidity issues for the corporate sector,” Ed Grebeck, chief executive officer of debt consulting firm Tempus Advisors in Stamford, Connecticut. “If CIT isn’t doing trade finance and lending, its customers will look to other banks for replacement and from what I’ve seen, they aren’t willing to step up.”

    That certainly doesn’t sound promising. Then again, CIT may be overplaying its hand in attempts to win government support as it tries to stave off bankruptcy. It’s trying to make an argument that it’s “too big to fail.” So far, the government doesn’t seem all that swayed by the argument. The Wall Street Journal in fact has a piece looking at retailers and restaurants and the companies interviewed seem to be minimizing the potential effect of CIT’s bankruptcy.

    Mary Kerr, a spokeswoman for Bon-Ton Stores Inc. (BONT), said some of the retailer’s suppliers use CIT’s factoring services for financing, although that number isn’t large. Right now, Bon-Ton doesn’t expect to see an impact on its business, she said, until there are further developments. And if vendors have trouble getting factoring companies to offer them financing, the retailer might be able to help, she said.

    “We have worked with vendors in the past when incidents like this have incurred,” Kerr said, without specifying how exactly the company would aid those suppliers finding it hard to get financing.

    CIT had been a major lender to the restaurant space, offering loans for opening new locations and refurbishing stores, though they scaled back in that department over the last two years, said John Hamburger, owner of the trade publication Franchise. Last year, it sought to make a bigger splash in offering loans to finance larger restaurant transactions, and built up its team, though it was slow going.

    Factoring is type of financing where a business sells its accounts receivables (in the form of invoices) at a discount. A couple months ago, I interviewed a factor in a video for our sister publication Business Finance. You can see see that video here and see how the business model works. If CIT fails, there are other firms that offer factoring. So it’s going to be hard-pressed to prove that it is providing an indispensable service.

    Here are some other news and notes on retail and retail real estate from around the Web today.

    More on June Same-Store Sales; Cotenancy Clauses; Military Base Retail (Weekend Roundup)

    (Due to some blog maintenance, I couldn’t get a roundup post up last Thursday. So here we’ll play a bit of catch-up on important retail and retail real estate news from Thursday through Sunday.)

    Bloomberg followed up on the commercial real estate “Time Bomb” hearings in Congress last Thursday.

    For other recent videos, check the Retail Traffic VideoWire over at Clip Syndicate.

    Here are some other news and notes.

    NRF’s Retailer Ranking; Trepp Data; Pier 1’s Outlook; Challenges at Landmark Mall (Holiday Weekend Wrap-Up)

    Coming back from the long holiday, here are some of news and notes from the past few days. Overall, it was pretty quiet.

    • The Llenrock Blog argues that developers deserve the next bailout considering the treatment that other borrowers have gotten from the government.
    • New data from Trepp LLC shows that there is now $40 billion bad commercial real estate debt. Altogether, Trepp says that at the end of June, 5.39 percent of the total balance of securitized commercial mortgages was under the control of special servicers, up from 4.92 percent at the end of May.
    • The National Retail Federation released its annual ranking of the largest retailers as ranked by 2008 revenue. A story and links to the rankings can be found here. An analysis of the list shows that discounters continue to gain ground while conventional department stores continue to slip.
    • Pier 1 CEO Alex Smith told shareholders that he sees“light at the end of the tunnel.” The retailer’s strategy of selling real estate and renegotiating rents has helped it emerge from financial troubles. And despite the difficult economic climate, Smith believes the company will return to profitability.
    • The Wall Street Journal looked at how some bold investors are venturing back into REITs. It’s a look at how some groups, including private-equity giant Apollo Management LP and distressed-investment specialist Angelo, Gordon & Co., are contemplating REIT IPOs.
    • In a story that encapsulates the challenges many malls are facing, the Washington Post looks at the struggling Landmark Mall in Alexandria, Va. Like many other dated malls, the property was slated for a massive update and redevelopment to convert it to a mixed-use center. But those plans have been shelved. In the meantime, vacancies are rising and the mall’s fate is in doubt.
    • Lastly, in international news, BR Malls raised $433 million from the combined sale of common shares in a public offering.

    Pop-Up Shops; Cash is King; Dress Barn Buys Tween Brands; BK’s New Marketing Ploy (Thursday’s News & Notes)

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    Dow Jones Newswires has a look at the trend of pop-up shops in urban markets. “Retailers are embracing the concept for a broader reach in cities like New York and Chicago as shoppers look for bargains or special items. Landlords see the short-term deals as better than no deal at all, receiving some income from hard-to-fill dark stores as they hunt for permanent tenants.”

    This is a trend we’ve tried to track in recent years, particularly the shops that have showed up in the New York area. For example, Teen Vogue operated The Haute Spot at the Mall at Short Hills in New Jersey in December. Target had four bodegas in New York city last fall. Toys ‘R’ Us operated a pop-up store in New York during the 2007 holiday shopping season. JC Penney had a shop in Times Square in spring 2006. We also ran a feature story on pop-up shops in February 2006.

    Here are some other news and notes on retail and retail real estate from around the Web today.

  • Dress Barn has agreed to acquire Tween Brands in a $947 million all stock transaction. You can read the details here.
  • If you’ve got cash, now is the time to buy. That’s the position this article from CoStar takes. The article is a roundup of thoughts from commercial real estate investors and other pros from around the country.
  • An open letter from Tracy Mullin, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, explains why the NRF has backed off merger talks with the Retail Industry Leaders Association.
  • Burger King has trotted out a particularly sexist ad campaign that the Retail Doctor Bob Phibbs has an excellent post about.

    There’s cutting edge fun-loving and bleeding-edge pandering.

    Compare all of this to the brilliantly executed McCafe launch last month which has Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts and others scrambling to stay relevant to a customer base suddenly considering and returning to McDonalds in the morning. McDonald’s got it right – grow your audience, don’t narrow it like BK is doing.

    The trouble with desperation marketing is people can smell it on you and choose to avoid you. It’s time for a change at Burger King. What do you think?

  • RetailWire has a discussion up centered around Target’s new approach to groceries. “[T]he company appears intent on getting consumers used to the idea of expecting to buy groceries at prices well below most other food outlets.”
  • Eddie Bauer’s Bankruptcy, Ruehl Folds, Apple’s Success, Battle at Children’s Place, (Wednesday’s News & Notes)

    Here are some news and notes on retail and retail real estate from around the Web today.

    • The big news of the day was Eddie Bauer’s bankruptcy. In addition, Abercrombie & Fitch is shuttering the Ruehl concept. You can see how that affects the store closure count for the year in a post from earlier today.
    • George Whalin raves about Apple’s continued success. Specifically, Whalin writes about Apple’s new store design.

      The most recent move is to a new store design. The first of the new stores recently opened in Scottsdale, Arizona. Visually spectacular, with a 75-foot-long skylight, the glass front and rear allows people to see all the way through the store. It is unlikely they will be able to do the same in most of their other stores, but it certainly adds to this eye-catching design.

    • The New York Times‘ DealBook wrote of a brewing battle at Children’s Place. It’s former CEO began a proxy contest last month to place three candidates on the company’s board. Current management, naturally, is resisting.
    • TWICE–that’s the cleverly named “This Week In Consumer Electronics”–writes up Best Buy’s radical store remodel plans. Its planning to “alter its store layout to emphasize services and test new product categories.” Interestingly, a Best Buy at 23rd and 6th Ave. in New York City recently shifted some things around. I wonder if that was a test of this new layout.
    • RichmondBizSense reported on a recent Urban Land Institute event where speakers said that commercial real estate is far from recovering.
    • Have some extra space in your mall parking lot? Call JetBlue.

      It has launched a new campaign in the parking garages of two malls – in Northern Virginia and Los Angeles – with installations meant to bring the in-flight experience to life. The installations include with in-flight monitors and airplane seats, all set in an environment meant to reproduce the feeling of being in the clouds.

    Thursday’s News & Notes

    Here are some news and notes on retail and retail real estate from around the Web today.

    This story from CNN was making the rounds this morning, in part because of its misleading headline. The headline, “Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?” plays right into the recent spate of stories asking whether commercial real estate is going to be “the next shoe” to drop. I think that angle has gotten played to death, especially since we’re more than two years into a commercial real estate correction. It’s not “going to drop.” Commercial real estate has dropped. The real questions at this point are, “When are we going to reach bottom?” and “What’s going to help the industry deal with the mountain of expiring debt now that CMBS is dead?” Those questions are actually what the CNN story is about, as it talks about Congressional hearings that occurred and asks experts what they think of the TALF and PPIP plans–ground we tried to explore with our May cover story. I agree with Real Property Alpha–this is a case of bad headline writing. In other coverage of the testimony, Zero Hedge recapped how the New York Fed Chairman drowned the talk of green shoots in commercial real estate.

    The same cannot be said for loan demand. The SLOOS reports that the net fraction of loan officers reporting weaker demand in April 2009 was 60% for C&I and 66% for CRE loans, a historical low for CRE demand. Weak demand bears emphasis, as it indicates that the observed slowdown in overall credit is partly due to firms’ reluctance to borrow, and not entirely to banks reluctance to lend.

    In sum, while green shoots may be sprouting in bank lending for commercial purposes—real estate or otherwise—it’s premature to start planning for a harvest. The combination of acute stresses in the financial markets, together with stresses on bank balance sheets, in the middle of the worst recession in a generation, should caution us from believing that recovery is just around the corner.

    You can read the Fed Chairman’s full testimony here.

    Other stories from around the Web today:

    Roundup of Recent Stories

    Here is a post-RECon roundup of interesting stories from the past week or so. I’ve tried to categorize them a bit rather than presenting a single list since there are so many interesting links here.

    Expansion of TALF

    RECon Reports

    Retailer News

    REIT News

    Latest Commercial Real Estate Doom and Gloom Reports


    Research and Data

    Misc.

    Charting a Path for a Retail Real Estate Recovery

    Although attendance is markedly down from the heights reached in 2007 and 2008, the mood of the annual ICSC RECon is far from morbid. According to ICSC, more than 30,000 people have registered for the event, although most attendees on the floor believe the actual attendance is 25,000 or less. Across the board, however, attendees will be leaving the show on a positive note.

    What attendees have found is that the retail real estate industry is not in a hunker down mentality. The signs of economic stabilization that preceded the event went a long way to calming people’s nerves. And although everyone is less busy than in past years, meetings are still productive. There is a focus on trying to backfill vacancies and optimize the performance of existing stores and shopping centers. And there are select retailers looking to expand. The pace of expansion is far slower than in previous years, but it has not stopped completely. As a result, there is a great deal of competition to get those retailers, but company executives say the meetings here will produce tangible results. Read the rest of this entry »

    RECon Update

    I’ve been tweeting as regularly as I can from the ICSC RECon show floor. You can see my tweets here. Here I’ll provide some observations on what the first full day of the show was like.

    First–the negative. Yes, attendance is down. ICSC is saying that registrations have surpassed 30,000 and may end up near 35,000 when it’s all said and done. However, few people I’ve talked to believe that many attendees are really here. A lot of people know folks that registered, but then didn’t make the trip. Most people think the real number is more like 25,000. A common refrain I’ve heard from companies is that they’ve cut their presence by half or more. Many companies also opted not to pay the huge expenses required for unpacking lavish booths. Many booths are scaled down. In some cases, firms just have tables and chairs and a handful of blown-up site plans or aerial photos. However, this is a minority, not the majority. There are also fewer plasma screens, booths with offices, goodies being handed out and other bells and whistles we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. ICSC did opt to occupy all three halls, but there are gaps. There are spaces that were booths in the past that have become ad hoc seating areas or have simply been curtained off. Also, we knew it was coming, but it’s incredibly odd to walk into the Central Hall and not see Simon Property Group and Westfield.

    Despite all of that, Read the rest of this entry »