Archive for the ‘Management & Leasing’ Category

2012 Forecast: More of the Same

ChainLinks Retail Advisors, a retail-only real estate services firm, has just released its U.S. National Retail Report 2012 Forecast, which predicts another slow year ahead for the sector.

According to the report, there will be fewer retail bankruptcies in 2012 than there were in 2011 and the national vacancy rate will go down. But many of the retailers that propelled the sector’s growth in the past few years, including chains like TJ Maxx, Marshall’s and Ross Dress For Less, might slow down expansion next year. Most of the growth will come from the dollar stores, fast food restaurants and fast casual chains.

The report’s authors caution that:

Looking forward, we continue to have strong concerns over mid-priced retail chains.

Chains caught in the middle will be where the most contraction occurs and though we don’t expect retail closures to approach last year’s levels, they will continue to mitigate growth across the board. Vacancy will shrink in 2012, but it will be at a slow pace, measured more by basis points than by percentage points.

Dollar Chains Ahead in Race for Market Dominance

In spite of putting forth their best efforts, drugstores trail dollar stores in the war for U.S. consumers. A report published earlier this week by brokerage firm Colliers International looks in-depth at dollar stores’ rapid expansion over the past few years and finds that they’ve been opening new stores at a faster pace than most of their competitors.

According to a post on Merchandising Services Blog, today there are approximately 21,500 dollar stores operating around the country, while national drugstores number 19,700 locations. Family Dollar, with 6,800 stores, and 99c Only Stores, with 285 units, would seem to pose the biggest threat to the drugstores as they generally take locations in urban environments, the drugstores’ most established turf.

Dollar General, on the other hand, prefers rural communities with fewer than 20,000 residents. The strategy often allows the chain to be the only necessity retailer in the area, eliminating the need to nab the best piece of real estate and pay top dollar to open new stores.

The last of the four major national chains, Dollar Tree, focuses on the suburbs.

Regardless of where the dollar stores are based, landlords love them. In addition to bringing in steady foot traffic, they willingly go into second, third and fourth generation spaces and have limited need for tenant allowances because of their modest buildouts. The Colliers report notes that the dollar stores have been able to close very aggressive deals, commanding some of the lowest retail rents around:

This is occuring even in markets where landlords, especially those with better-performing centers, are beginning to see some pricing power return to them. Depending on the chain, base rents can run as low as the high single digits for a 10-year term. Rent step-ups are rare during the first five years; tenants will consider a 10% bump (2% per year), beginning in year six, for the balance of the term.

Starbucks, McDonald’s Bent on Growth

While next year might still bring a considerable number of store closures, at least two household name chains will contribute to new store openings. Starbucks has revealed plans to launch a new health and wellness concept in the first half of 2012. It has already bought a juice company called Evolution Fresh in preparation for the launch, planning to incorporate it into the concept.

Meanwhile, McDonald’s, which in recent years became Starbucks’ competitor in the war for Americans’ coffee dollars, announced it will step up both new store openings and store renovations worldwide in 2012.

When two of the largest restaurant chains in the U.S. want to expand, is that a sign that the future might not be as bleak as we may fear?

Wal-Mart Opening Pop-Ups

The world’s biggest retailer seems to be putting out all the stops lately to adapt to a new retail environment. Earlier this year, Wal-Mart launched its small-format Express stores, meant to allow the chain to enter urban markets with high barriers to entry and compete with supermarkets and drug stores on their own turf. Now, Retail & Consumer reports the retailer has opened two pop-up stores, measuring 1,000 sq. ft. and 3,000 sq. ft. at the Topanga Mall in West Los Angeles and at Horton Plaza in San Diego.

Wal-Mart has been quietly working on this initiative for some time, according to The New York Post. In part, this is an attempt to compete with Toys ‘R’ Us’ pop-up Express stores during the holiday shopping season since Wal-Mart’s pop-up units will concentrate on toys and electronics and will operate through December 31.

At the same time, it’s a testing ground used by Wal-Mart’s management to create more synergy between its bricks-and-mortar locations and its online sales, a strategy pioneered by Apple stores. According to a Wal-Mart spokesperson quoted by CSPnet.com:

“The store will display key holiday items such as toys, electronics, gaming and home theater. These items can be picked up at the Walmart.com store or nearest Walmart store via the Site to Store and Pick Up Today options. Products can also be delivered to customers’ homes via the standard shipping options currently available through Walmart.com. Customers will also have an opportunity to purchase a small selection of items at the store, mostly accessories.”

Filene’s Basement to Liquidate

As the year winds down, the annual parade of retailers headed for bankruptcy and liquidation has begun. This morning, Syms Corp. announced it was filing for Chapter 11 protection for both itself and Filene’s, which became its subsidiary in 2009.

Syms plans to liquidate the remaining 21 Filene’s stores after the end of this holiday season. The company partly blames the current economic environment for the troubles the chains have faced.

In a statement, Syms chief executive Marcy Syms said that fierce competition, along with the “worst economic downturn in our lifetimes,” were among the reasons for the move.

Filene’s Basement has been in operation since 1908.

The liquidation of its stores will have a macro impact on the retail real estate sector, delivering more vacant space to an already strained market, and might also further complicate the redevelopment of the Downtown Crossing area in Boston.

Trader Joe’s Stores to Grow in Size

While the current trend in the retail industry is for big-box store operators to go smaller, niche grocery operator Trader Joe’s is pursuing the opposite strategy.

An article in the Los Angeles Times notes the chain is on a major expansion drive and in addition to opening new locations, will likely go from its current 10,000 sq. ft. to 15,000 sq. ft. model to building stores bigger than 15,000 sq. ft. to drive sales productivity.

The issue is that Trader Joe’s built its reputation partly on being really good at utilizing smaller spaces. Plus, some of its long-time customers are unhappy about the chain losing some of its small-store charm, Los Angeles Times reports:

“I’ve driven by, and the new building looks kind of shiny and huge, which doesn’t square with what Trader Joe’s is in my head,” said Geragos, a 42-year-old stay-at-home mom. “I’m bummed about losing the homey feel.”

Trader Joe’s operates at least two stores below 23rd Street in Manhattan, where Retail Traffic is based, including a traditionally small store near Union Square and a 41,000-sq. ft. megastore inside a former Barnes & Noble space in Chelsea. While this editor has never been able to withstand the super-long lines and crowded conditions at the Union Square location, the bigger store has proven much easier to navigate.

But we’d be curious to know how retail real estate insiders feel about expanded Trader Joe’s.

Department Stores Make a Comeback?

Given the market’s current preference for discount retailers and luxury stores, it’s good to hear about a mid-market department store chain expanding. Lord & Taylor will reportedly open at least three new stores in the coming months.

The New York Post writes that:

The privately owned retailer, which also operates three lower-price outlet stores, is in preliminary talks with landlords to open still more locations during the next several years in additional states, including California, according to sources close to the company.

This is particularly good news given that only five years ago, the retail industry seemed ready to write Lord & Taylor off as a living ghost. Yet after undergoing a makeover, the chain seems to have found new vitality.

This fits in with the overall trend of department stores coming back into favor, along with regional malls.

New Leasing Strategy?

Talk about a mix of high and low! International House of Pancakes (IHOP), a decidedly unglamorous restaurant chain, will reportedly move into the upscale Limelight Marketplace retail venue in the Chelsea section of Manhattan.

Set in a former church building, the Limelight features primarily hip, upscale tenants like make-up seller Face Stockholm, clothing boutique Cult of Individuality and famed Grimaldis pizzeria. The vibe at the property definitely doesn’t lead one to wonder, “Where’s the local IHOP?”

Is this unusual combination the latest thing in retail leasing, a way for owners of upscale centers to cater to consumers’ ongoing focus on value? Does anyone want to share thoughts on what the owners of the place might be trying to achieve?

Uniqlo’s Growth Spurt

Japanese apparel retailer Uniqlo has some ambitious growth plans going forward. Recently, the chain’s owner, Fast Retailing Co., announced it plans to open anywhere from 200 to 300 Uniqlo stores worldwide over the next nine years.

A story on ApparelNews.net notes:

The goal is to raise revenue from $6.5 billion annually to reach $65 billion in sales by the year 2020—numbers that would, in fact, outpace its rivals Gap and Spain’s Inditex, which owns Zara.

Uniqlo made its debut in the U.S. in the mid 2000s, opening a store in New York City’s SoHo and in several New Jersey malls.

Recently, the retailer launched a 5,000-square-foot pop-up store on 42nd Street near Bryant Park, and in a week’s time, it will open a 64,000-square-foot store on 34th Street and an 89,000-square-foot store on Fifth Avenue and 53rd Street.

Google Testing Bricks-and-Mortar?

Google seems to be following in the footsteps of Apple and Microsoft in pursuing a bricks-and-mortar retailing strategy. This week the world’s most popular search engine opened a pop-up store in London, reports the London Evening Standard. The store will remain open for three months and will sell primarily Google’s Chromebook laptops and accessories.

If the venture proves successful, however, Google might look into opening permanent stores.

Arvind Desikan, head of consumer marketing at Google UK, said: “It is our first foray into physical retail. This is a new channel for us and it’s still very, very early days. It’s something Google is going to play with and see where it leads.”