Archive for the ‘Management & Leasing’ Category

Borders to Delay Rent Payments to Protect Liquidity

The potential of a Borders bankruptcy filing has been generating a lot of buzz in the retail real estate industry in the past few weeks. The book retailer has clearly been struggling and many landlords might be bracing themselves for store closing announcements in the near future. The good news that emerged late last week was that Borders has secured $550 million in financing from GE Capital, which might help it avoid bankruptcy.

The bad news is that the loan comes with certain conditions, and now Borders has announced it will delay payments to both vendors and landlords to increase its liquidity. Meanwhile, a bankruptcy filing remains a possibility, according to analysis by The New York Times.

New Retail REIT on the Market (Thursday’s News & Notes)

It looks like the number of publicly traded retail REITs might grow a bit this year. Today, news emerged that American Assets Trust Inc. successfully raised $564 million in the largest REIT IPO in more than a year.

For more on the latest news in retail and retail real estate follow the links below:

At Mall of America, Something to Tweet About

PROMO editor at large Brian Quinton had some interesting observations this morning about Mall of America’s Twitter strategy.

I’ve re-posted his thoughts below:

Like most everyone in this nation, I’ve spent a large chunk of the last four weeks wandering around a shopping mall, first selecting thoughtful gifts for my loved ones and then tromping back to exchange the rubbish I got in exchange. (Kudos to you, Amazon.com, and your reported patent to introduce a stealth “gift blocker” to block that home cheese-making kit from Aunt Hilda.)

In between retail encounters—and the occasional soft pretzel—I took time to put my mobile phone through some new tricks this year. I checked in to location-based networks like Foursquare every few paces, just to see what deals were being offered. I turned on all my smartphone shopping apps to make sure coupons and rebates were pushed to my phone without any help from me. I scanned barcodes with impunity, sometimes for video content on my phone, and sometimes to find better prices online for items I was looking at in-store. (And I found them, too.)

All in all, if we’re not all more connected to brands after this holiday season, it won’t be because the retailers, mall operators and sell-through manufacturers of America weren’t trying to engage us with promotions in social and mobile.

But I need to testify to what struck me as the most innovative use of social media by a retail entity in December 2010: the Mall of America’s “Big Secret Parking Party” that gave away reserved parking spaces at the nation’s largest enclosed mall on December 18, the busiest shopping day of the year.

On that day, the Minneapolis-area mall closed off a portion of its north parking lot and reserved a precious 96 VIP spaces for its followers on Twitter. Those followers also had to register at social commerce company Eventbrite.com under the #bspp hashtag.

The VIP passes were offered in three batches on Eventbrite Dec. 15 and 16 (along with a surprise batch on Dec. 17). Once they won their BSPP ticket, registrants could show up at the Mall between 8 and 10 a.m. on Saturday Dec. 18, show their Eventbrite registration, and claim their spot.

The Mall of America reportedly has 12,550 spaces in its parking lots and got 195,000 visitors on Black Friday. So you do the math on whether a shot at a free spot would have appeal.

MOA also offered gift cards worth $25 to the first five people to check in on Foursquare each day between December 20 and 23. And the MOA Youth Foundation made a $1 charitable donation for each Facebook Places check-in from December 20 through December 23.

Speaking before the promotion, EVP of operations David Haselman said the Mall of America wanted “to reward loyal Twitter followers with something extremely coveted during the holiday shopping season—a close parking spot with the hassle of a time-consuming search.”

Did this campaign build sales or conversions? Probably not. But malls tend to face a problem when it comes to engendering shopper loyalty; consumers are more liable to pledge their allegiance to specific retail brands than to the mall operators themselves.

But the @MallofAmerica account went from 4,900 followers before the promotion to 6,200 at press time. Not a bad result for a campaign that basically cost nothing, garnered a good deal of regional press, and achieved a 26% increase in followers. And gave shoppers a reason to think about the parcking lot with something other than complete dread.

Mall of America Owners Want Xanadu Meadowlands (Monday’s News & Notes)

It looks like Xanadu Meadowlands, North Jersey’s ill-fated retail/entertainment complex has finally found the right developer. Over the weekend, Triple Five Group, the owners of the Mall of America, signed a letter of intent with Xanadu’s lenders to take over the project. Given Triple Five’s experience with venues of this kind (in addition to retail, Mall of America features a movie theater complex, an amusement park and other entertainment components), this seems like a step in the right direction. For more on retail and retail real estate follow the links below:

Hundreds of New Stores Planned for 2011 (Friday’s News & Notes)

We seem to be finally getting to a point where store opening announcements outnumber announcements of closings and liquidations. Family Dollar has revealed it plans to double its annual store growth to 300 locations. Japanese apparel retailer Uniqlo reportedly wants to open 200 U.S. locations. For more on this and other stories about retail and retail real estate, follow the links below:

Borders and Barnes & Noble Might Merge

Now here’s an interesting approach to the problems battering traditional booksellers–a merger of the sector’s two behemoths, Borders and Barnes & Noble. Reports emerged yesterday that Bill Ackman, one of Borders’ largest shareholders (he has also made a name for his investments in GGP, Target and J.C. Penney), has offered to finance a $960 million takeover of Barnes & Noble.

The thinking seems to be that a merger would allow the booksellers to benefit from economies of scale. Barnes & Noble’s shares surged 29 percent when news of the potential acquisition reached the markets.

But some analysts question whether a merger would offer any permanent solutions to the booksellers’ woes. The biggest threat facing bricks-and-mortar book chains today are e-readers and it’s not yet clear how combining forces would help fight competition from Amazon.com, Google and Apple.

In any case, if Borders and Barnes & Noble do end up merging, there will likely be a major portfolio overhaul. We’d love to hear from all of you what you think of this proposal. Does a merger make sense? Will it help save Borders? What will be Bill Ackman’s game plan if he ends up with the largest bookstore chain in the U.S?

Shopping Center REITs Post Respectable Numbers in 3Q2010

Now that all 13 shopping center operators in the REIT universe have posted results for the third quarter of 2010, it looks like the sector continues to have good momentum heading into 2011. Some of the operating metrics were not as strong as those of the regional mall players–occupancies decreased for at least four of the REITs and NOI growth was positive for only half of the shopping center landlords. But all in all, fundamentals are looking up.

Five shopping center REITs outperformed analysts’ FFO expectations in the third quarter, by a range of $0.01 per share to $0.04 per share. The outperformers included Kimco Realty Corp., Regency Centers Corp., Weingarten Realty Investors, Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust and Urstadt Biddle Properties. Seven companies missed estimates, most by only $0.01 to $0.02 per share. These included Developers Diversified Realty, Federal Realty Investment Trust, Cedar Shopping Centers, Saul Centers Inc., Acadia Realty Trust, Inland Real Estate Corp. and Equity One Inc.

Kite Realty Group was right on target.

With the exception of Equity One, portfolio occupancies in the sector stayed well above 90 percent.

“We continue to believe that the retail REIT universe will continue to enjoy steady earnings growth in 2011 and 2012,” wrote Rich Moore, REIT analyst with RBC Capital Markets in a Nov. 12 report.

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Crisis Period is Behind Us, REIT Execs Proclaim

Remember when commercial real estate was “the next shoe to drop”? Listening to REIT executives talk about current market conditions at NAREIT’s annual convention in New York, it became apparent that the days when everyone was waiting for Armageddon are thankfully behind us.

For one thing, it seems that the pace of leasing has picked up considerably in the past six months. Michael Glimcher, chairman and CEO of Glimcher Realty Trust, talked about foreign retailers starting to enter new U.S. markets. Executives from PREIT noted that they are actually postponing lease renewal conversations until after the holiday season, instead of locking renewals in right now. The 2010 holiday shopping season is likely to be a strong one, they said, and next year the leasing environment is going to be more favorable for landlords.

In fact, according to comments by Milton Cooper, executive chairman of Kimco Realty Corp., and David Simon, chairman and CEO of Simon Property Group, the most recent real estate downturn has been a piece of cake compared to the one they lived through in the early 1990s. Back then, “real estate” remained a dirty word for several years and it was virtually impossible to convince investors to put money into commercial properties. The modern-day crisis has abated within a much shorter time span. Today, both debt and equity are readily available for anyone with high quality assets.

That’s not to say that the REITs haven’t learned some hard lessons during the more recent downturn–most having to do with maintaining low leverage ratios and investing in only the highest quality assets. Cooper, for example, noted that if he had to do it over again, Kimco would not deviate from its focus on shopping centers. (He mentioned that the company invested in some assets that were not pure retail because they offered higher yields, but even though those assets had performed well, he now views the strategy as too risky). Simon cautioned investors against risky assets as well, noting that it’s wiser to concentrate on current cash flow than on future potential.

Commenting on the need for REITs to stay away from complex financial engineering, Simon also made an aside about General Growth Properties, which emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection earlier this month. In his view, it was fortunate that the judge in the GGP case allowed the properties that were held in special purpose entities to be included in the company’s bankruptcy filing. Otherwise, the case would not be a reorganization, but “a liquidation,” Simon noted.

What’s Been Going On?

It’s been entirely too long since we put up a roundup post. We’ve got a slew of retail and retail real estate links to share today. Some of these are a tad old–but still worth reading if you haven’t seen them yet.

In particular, there have been a bunch of posts and stories recently talking about why now is–or is not–a great time to invest in real estate.

On Monday, we got Property Sales Get `Cash for Clunkers’ Boost in Tax Uncertainty from Bloomberg. It talks about how tax uncertainty may prompt some owners of real estate to sell now–before any tax hikes come–rather than wait and get penalized later.

This was the exact opposite message of a story from November 9 on StockMarketsReview.com that proclaimed quite confidently, “Now is The Best Time to Purchase Commercial Real Estate In Decades.”

In a similar vein, CoStar asked Have Commercial Real Estate Prices Bottomed Out? That, too, would make a case for why now might be a good time to buy commercial real estate.

This notion was further backed by a prediction from Jones Lang LaSalle that commercial property deal volume might grow by 40 percent in 2011. Research compiled by Retail Traffic, NREI and Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services also shows that investors are more bullish heading into next year.

Perhaps all of this points to why Commercial Real Estate Needs Better Data and Metrics–a point argued by Marketwi.se’s John Reeder.

The lesson–as always–is that it’s dangerous business making blanket statements about the outlook for commercial real estate. A lot of what makes a particular deal work has to do with local conditions, not some macro outlook for the sector. I think Ron Altoon touched on some important themes in a recent interview I did with him.

The mindset that you can evaluate a deal simply by doing some balance sheet calculations misses that sometimes what can hurt you is what you can’t see behind a building’s walls. And the investors that win in the long run are the ones that not just make the right financial bets, but the ones that are also talented managers of real estate. Financial engineering isn’t enough. Civil engineering is important too–as is architecture, construction, property management, leasing, etc.

There were also a bunch of stories over at Bloomberg Business Week as part of a special report entitled The Comeback of Commercial Real Estate. It’s the most comprehensive attempt I’ve seen by that publication to cover our sector–perhaps a sign of the publication’s continued evolution under new leadership. Perhaps the most interesting piece in the lot is Commercial Real Estate’s Uneven Rebound, but many of the features are worth a look. In addition, the slideshow of America’s Biggest Commercial Landlords was compiled in part from our own list of the Top 100 Managers of retail real estate as well as research from our sister publication NREI.

Aside from the flurry of reports about the investment outlook, there were other good pieces looking at retail and real estate.

GGP To Emerge From Bankruptcy on November 8

The big news overnight was the announcement that Judge Allan Gropper of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York confirmed General Growth’s plan of reorganization. It will emerge on November 8 with most of its debt restructured and infusions of equity from a list of big name partners. Overall, the reorganization process will have lasted about 19 months. GGP’s riskier assets will be part of the new Howard Hughes Corp. entity, which includes many remnants of the land and development portfolio GGP acquired as part of its takeover of Rouse Corp. several years ago. What remains of GGP proper will be a company boasting a large portfolio of stabilized assets. It plans to follow the reemergence by raising roughly $2.3 billion in equity in a public offering.

From the firm’s release:

GGP will emerge from its financial restructuring with a strong balance sheet and substantially less debt, providing it with a solid financial foundation on which to execute its growth strategy. Upon emergence, GGP will have a significantly improved capital structure, having secured $6.8 billion in equity commitments from Brookfield Asset Management, Fairholme Funds, Pershing Square Capital Management, Blackstone and The Teacher Retirement System of Texas. GGP has also successfully and consensually restructured approximately $15 billion in project-level debt, renegotiating terms and extending maturity dates. In addition, all pre-petition GGP creditors will be satisfied in full.

There are several good reports on the latest news including at Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg.

The momentous announcement prompted me to look back at a story we published in February 2009. At the time, GGP had not yet filed for bankruptcy, but it only seemed a matter of time. We had never seen a REIT bankruptcy of that magnitude and no one was entirely sure how it would play out. So we interviewed attorneys and REIT experts and had them spell out what they thought would happen.

It turns out that things played out much as we predicted. The story concluded that REITs were better candidates than traditional C-Corps. to emerge from bankruptcy intact.

What we wrote then:

The sector may not have been tested by a big bankruptcy yet, but enough is known about how the companies are structured and how a bankruptcy proceeds that experts think the industry should emerge fine, even from a series of bankruptcies. Further, there is reason to believe that because REITs control a tangible base of assets through large portfolios of real estate, these firms may be more likely to survive bankruptcies than other companies that’s value is harder to pin down or could be subject to liquidation.

The piece also said that it was likely that given the state of credit markets that white knights investing equity would be a better bet than traditional debtor-in-possession financing. (In fairness, experts did say finding white knights after the bankruptcy filing might be difficult. In GGP’s case, it was able to find them.)

The story also said that REIT shareholders would be more likely than traditional shareholders to come out okay in a bankruptcy filing. As it turned out, GGP’s stock ended up appreciating from about $0.25 per share at its low point to $16.80 today. In fact, General Growth has the rare distinction of regaining a spot on the New York Stock Exchange while still in bankruptcy reorganization. It was briefly delisted when its stock was trading under $1.00 per share. But anyone that bought then ended up making a killing as its stock recovered when it became clear that GGP was going to survive in good shape.

At any rate, revisiting the story made for an interesting read. And it’s nice to know that we–at least sometimes–know what we’re talking about.