Archive for the ‘News’ Category

CoStar’s First Look at Q2 Numbers Shows Continued Recovery

With the second quarter in the books, early indications are that the retail sector continued its recovery.

CoStar’s first look report said that the retail real estate market has now experienced eight straight quarters of positive net absorption resulting in a cumulative 99 million square feet absorption.

The overall vacancy rate remained steady at 7.1 percent.

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costar_q22011_total_vacancy

National Highlights

  • Second quarter net absorption increased to 11.1M square feet, 700,000 square feet more than the previous quarter’s net absorption of 10.4 square feet. This, however, remains well below the robust fourth quarter net absorption rate of more than 26.5M square feet. The two year average net absorption rate is 12.4M square feet.
  • The national retail vacancy rate remained steady at 7.1% in large part due to a 40-year record
    low amount of new retail square footage completed, 7.4M square feet
  • New retail deliveries will be minimal for the foreseeable future as retail space under construction
    in the second quarter totaled 26.8M square feet. This compares to more than 145M square feet
    of retail space under construction in the second quarter of 2008.
  • The national retail rental rate declined to $14.74 per square foot from $14.84 per square foot in
    the first quarter. While record low new supply has stabilized the retail vacancy rate rental rates
    won’t increase until retail demand increases which would require significant increases in hiring
    and wage growth.

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costar_q22011_absorption

Property Type Highlights

  • Lifestyle centers continued to suffer the largest rental rate declines with second quarter rental
    rates declining $.94 from the first quarter rental rate.
  • Lifestyle centers also suffered the largest quarterly increase in vacancy rate increase from 8.6%
    in the first quarter to 8.9% in the second quarter.
  • Due to the continued weak performance of Lifestyle centers the spread in rental rates between
    Lifestyle centers and malls has declined from more than a 56% rental rate premium for Lifestyle
    centers in the first quarter of 2008 to less than a 30% premium today. This is due largely to two
    factors. First, aggressive building of lifestyle centers during the last decade continues to haunt
    Lifestyle centers as they are forced to trade occupancy for reduced retailer quality and reduced
    rents. Conversely, malls significantly reduced their rate of new construction in the last
    decade building less than 40% of the mall square footage built in the 1970’s.

Centro Portfolio Sale a Done Deal

The Blackstone Group and Centro Properties Group finalized the sale of Centro’s U.S. assets to Blackstone’s affiliate BRE Retail Holdings Inc. yesterday. The deal, announced back in March, represents the largest sale of retail real estate since the downturn began. It might also serve as a bellweather of whether other sellers of large retail portfolios can find buyers for their assets.

According to the press release announcing the transaction, Blackstone paid approximately $9 billion for Centro’s U.S. portfolio, which includes 585 community and neighborhood shopping centers totaling 92 million square feet. As part of the deal, Blackstone also picked up Centro’s U.S. property management platform, which encompasses 18 offices and 600 retail real estate professionals.

Blackstone’s plan appears to be to invest additional funds into repositioning and redeveloping the properties–and potentially sell them down the line, as Blackstone, and private equity players in general, don’t usually view real estate as a long-term play.

In a statement, A.J. Agarwal, senior managing director with Blackstone, said:

The company is well-positioned today with an attractive portfolio comprised of strategically located assets in dense, infill markets with productive grocer anchors. We look forward to partnering with the Company’s experienced management team to help them pursue the growth opportunity embedded within this portfolio.

New Kind of Mall?

That most men hate malls, and shopping in general, is a well-known maxim in the retail industry. Anecdotal evidence would point to the fact that men often consider going into a store a sort of punishment and statistical evidence says one in five men would rather do their taxes than go shopping. As a result, most malls in the U.S. still cater to women, in spite of some barely successful tries over the years to lure in men with promises of beer and cookies.

A bold European developer, however, is attempting to challenge the wisdom that men simply won’t enjoy shopping by building a mall that caters exclusively to the male population. The upcoming Panska Pasaz in Prague, buing built by Metroslav, will be tenanted by high-end men’s stores, especially those that specialize in tailored suits. There will also be a wine market on site.

Here’s the property’s Facebook page. It’s in Czech, but you can see the renderings and some of the posted press releases seem to be in English.

U.S. mall developers have been thinking up ways in recent years to make their properties more relevant to a wider range of consumers. It will be interesting to see how successful the Panska Pasaz experiment turns out to be. If it finally hits on the formula of how to get men into a mall, it might be worth replicating here.

SNL: REIT CEO Compensation Soared in 2010

SNL Financial published a look at REIT CEO compensation that shows that the highest paid REIT CEOs saw a very nice boost in their compensation in 2010.

According to their research:

SL Green Realty Corp.’s Marc Holliday landed the largest total compensation during the year at $24.8 million, up 117.6% from the prior year. Under his leadership, SL Green’s total return bested the SNL US REIT Equity Index total return by 6.4 percentage points, at 35.3%, and FFO per share grew 9.3% year over year.

And while Holliday’s 117.6% year-over-year pay bump may seem high, other CEOs saw total compensation growth far exceeding that figure. David Simon, chairman and CEO of Simon Property Group Inc., saw the largest pay increase among the top 20 highest-paid CEOs and posted the second-largest total compensation.

In 2010, the company recorded a total return of 28.4%, and FFO per share fell 6.0% from a year earlier, while Simon’s total compensation grew 430.0% to $24.6 million from $4.6 million. Simon’s bonus climbed to $4 million in 2010 from $3 million in 2009, and he received $19.5 million in stock and option awards, up from $578,677 in the prior year.

Aside from Simon, several other retail REIT head honchos made the list.

Retail REITs ranked fifth through ninth on the list. Federal Realty Investment Trust CEO Don Wood made $9.76 million. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers CEO Steve Tanger received compensation of $9.44 million. Equity One CEO Jeff Olson got $9.15 million. And Macerich CEO Art Coppola was paid $8.99 million.

It was a big boost for all of them with Wood’s compensation up 178.1 percent, Tanger’s up 170.9 percent, Olson’s up 301.5 percent and Coppola’s up 54.5 percent.

All the retail REITs on the list posted total return growth in 2010. In addition, REIT share prices appreciated quite a bit last year.

Should Apple Be Considered An Anchor?

Apple_store_fifth_avenueThere is a lot of buzz on the web this week about the possibility of Apple being seen as an anchor for malls and lifestyle centers as opposed to as an inline tenant. The Wall Street Journal was the first to raise the issue, noting that Apple brings in revenues and shopper traffic that are actually more robust than those of traditional department store anchors, like Macy’s or Sears.

The Journal notes:

In Apple’s fiscal year through September, it had sales of $34.1 million per retail store. Macy’s much larger stores generated $29 million on average in sales last year, and J.C. Penney, just $16.1 million, estimates Michael Exstein of Credit Suisse.

The story’s premise hinges on two pieces of data—both of which seem to come straight from Apple. The story is pitched as if the Journal has dug around and discovered Apple’s secret sauce. But it almost reads as if Apple may have planted the idea itself, as a way of getting the discussion going.

Here’s the key paragraph:

More people now visit Apple’s 326 stores in a single quarter than the 60 million who visited Walt Disney Co.’s four biggest theme parks last year, according to data from Apple and the Themed Entertainment Association. Apple’s annual retail sales per square foot have soared to $4,406—excluding online sales, according to investment bank Needham & Co. Add in online sales, which include iTunes, and the number jumps to $5,914. That’s far higher than the sales per square foot and online sales of jeweler Tiffany & Co. ($3,070), luxury retailer Coach Inc. ($1,776), and electronics retailer Best Buy Co. ($880), according to estimates.

That figure jibes with some talk at last week’s NAREIT convention. Specifically, according to Edward Glickman, president and CEO of regional mall REIT PREIT, Apple’s sales per square foot tend to be 30 times higher than those of its competitors.
Meanwhile, according to comments made by Glimcher Realty Trust Chairman & CEO Michael Glimcher during last week’s NAREIT conference, adding an Apple store to Glimcher’s Polaris Center property in Columbus, Ohio will boost the overall mall’s sales-per-square-foot average by $50.

Of course, the importance of that figure is that a mall’s average sales-per-square-foot is one of the factors that determines how much rent a landlord can charge. So adding an Apple store can be a huge coup in terms of eventually driving rents upwards.

To put the $4,406 sales-per-square-foot figure into additional perspective, the sales per square foot average at regional malls peaked in 2007, when the monthly average was $415.71 per square foot, according to ICSC. Last year the figure was $386.43 per square foot and through March of this yearthe number is $400 per square foot.

Drilling down a bit, sales at entertainment and electronics retailers average $1,275 per square foot as a group. Clearly Apple is driving that number. And it’s also clear that Apple vastly outperforms its peers. Overall, Apple’s figure is 10 times the average for most mall tenants and about four times the average for all entertainment and electronics retailers.

Lastly, nobody can argue that the brand does an excellent job of running its stores, complete with first rate customer service and marketing buzz surrounding new product launches.

So you look at all that, and the case that Apple should be treated as an anchor seems pretty compelling. Yet as the blog Passions of a Zealot points out, as an inline tenant Apple pays many times the amount of rent that a department store would. Some people question whether the brand shouldn’t be elevated to anchor status because of the traffic it draws, complete with more favorable rental rates.

But there are other points to consider.

Mall anchors don’t just serve as a point of attraction for customers. By signing extra long-term leases for huge amounts of space they help property owners secure financing from lenders, according to this story from CNBC. Plus, department stores spend a lot of money on marketing and advertising out of their own pocket, which helps bring more shoppers to the mall.

Traditional anchors such as Macy’s [M 27.00 -0.29 (-1.06%) ] and J.C. Penney [JCP 34.11 -0.01 (-0.03%) ] do a large amount of local advertising, which helps to publicize the mall for its operators. They also sponsor community events.

“When is the last time you saw Apple do that?” asked Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners.

Regardless of whether Apple can successfully convince its landlords that it should be viewed as an anchor in its own right, the brand is certainly seen as a trailblazer by the retail community.

Earlier this week, department store chain JC Penney announced it was hiring Ron Johnson, Apple’s head of retail stores, as its chief executive. JC Penney likely hopes Johnson will help the chain grow its online business, while at the same time drawing customers to its brick-and-mortar stores, according to The New York Times.

Johnson may have his work cut out for him, however, given how different JC Penney’s position in the market is from that of Apple:

“Apple sells best-in-class product and faces basically little to no competition,” said Michelle Clark, an analyst with Morgan Stanley. “J. C. Penney, on the other hand, operates in an intensely competitive industry and sells merchandise that is undifferentiated versus peers and in fact has been lagging peers.”

Gap to Cut Down Full-Price Stores, Expand in Outlets

The Gap continues to tweak its operating model, in the hope of reversing the trends that put it on a downward spiral in the mid-2000s. During a call with analysts yesterday, company CEO Glenn Murphy revealed he plans to close 200 Gap stores by 2013, putting the Gap’s total store count in the U.S. at 700. In 2007, the Gap operated 1,150 stores stateside.

At the same time, the company plans to step up expansion in the outlet center space, for both its Gap and Banana Republic divisions. Because of their emphasis on value and opportunities for growth, outlet centers have become all the rage lately for both retailers and developers.

REIT Week Takeaways

It’s been a whirlwind couple of days. Altogether, I sat in on 18 retail REIT presentations at NAREIT’s REIT Week. (During a few of the time blocks multiple retail REITs were reporting, so there were some I could not get to.)

The major themes were similar to those coming out of ICSC’s RECon a couple of weeks ago.

When it comes to leasing, retailers of all types are much more aggressive than they have been since before Lehman Brothers imploded. Occupancy rates tend to be higher for both regional mall REITS and shopping center REITs at their large spaces. There are still gaps to fill when it comes to inline tenants. In part, that is stemming from the fact that mom & pop type retailers are still having a hard time lining up financing. Smaller banks remain troubled. So while Wall Street is lending–which is helping the largest retailers, who have ample lines of credit to fund expansion–the traditional sources of financing for small businesses are still not available.

However, many retailers are also rethinking store sizes and shrinking concepts. In many cases retail REITs seem to be welcoming this development. If they can recapture all or part of a big box that’s paying below market rents, it gives them a chance to improve cash flows by finding a replacement or subdividing the space.

On the investment sales side, I heard a few different references to there being an “ocean of capital” that’s now chasing retail assets. The competition is most fierce for class-A product. But with a limited supply of that on the market, investors are slowly moving their way down the value chain. The fact that banks, insurance companies and CMBS lenders are also increasing their tolerance for risk will help to fund deals for class-B and class-C product. The competition is such that many retail REITs don’t think they’ll be able to acquire that much. Many will end up being net sellers since they’re finding it’s an ideal time to sell non-core assets. Only a few of the REITs that reported seem to be aggressively looking to expand through acquisitions.

When it comes to development, just about the only ground-up development anyone seems excited about is the outlet center space. The figure going around the show was that there is room to build 100 outlet centers in the U.S. So a lot of firms–even those with no track record in outlets–are taking a hard look at how to get in on the business. Much more prevalent was talk of redevelopment and expansion. REIT managers by-and-large agreed that redeveloping or expanding existing properties was the best way to increase NOI and organic growth, given current market conditions.

I’ll expand on these thoughts in an analysis piece that I’ll post tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, here are links to all the live blogs we posted from REIT Week.

NAREIT REIT Week Live Blog: Westfield Group

Mark Stefanek, CFO-U.S., is reporting for Westfield Group at NAREIT’s REIT Week.

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Below are notes from the session.

4:34: Stefanek: Our philosophy is intensive management and redevelopment. We get 12 to 15 percent on incremental capital we spend. And we look to make the centers continually relevant. … Garden State Plaza, for example, has less than 20 percent of the same tenants it did in 1994. … We came from place where it’s normal to have other types of users in malls—such as grocers. We talked about that so long in the U.S. that we stopped talking about it. … The business came to us. … And so far we’ve added three grocers to suburban malls. … We think it’s very transforming for the mall.

4:35: Stefanek: We think the market is in a good place to recycle capital. We are looking at properties where we don’t have the ability to spend significant money on redevelopment in the coming years. … We’re looking at new markets where we haven’t been in the past. … In the past we’ve stuck to the four markets we’re already in (U.S., U.K., Australia, New Zealand), but now we’re looking beyond that.

4:37: Stefanek: Our March/April sales in the U.S. were up 7 percent. Based on all of that, we are expecting 2.5 to 3.0 percent same-center NOI growth in the U.S. (And greater increases in Australia and the U.K.)

4:39: Stefanek: At ICSC, retailers came to do deals. … Another interesting point is that a lot of the food court tenants are basically franchisees. That business is doing well because they are actually able to get financing. … It’s a small data point, but I thought it was very positive. … New concepts are going to the coasts. And tenants are going to B properties. … Retailers need to expand and they are going to not just the best centers.

4:40: Stefanek: In 2011 we will start somewhere between $750M and $1B in new redevelopment and in 2012 and 2013 it will be up to $1.5B in each year.

4:42: Stefanek: (On the World Trade Center.) We have the right of first offer. … We are talking to them about potentially doing retail. What’s holding it up is one of the office buildings may not get built right away. How do you deal with that? We’re a little bit the tail wagging the dog until the plan is set for the office building. … We are constantly meeting with the Port. We would like to be involved, but there is no hard and fast agreement.

4:48: Stefanek: We have an e-commerce mall in Australia. We have a different name-brand recognition there. We have a bunch of tenants signed up. The technology works. We have tenants that we don’t have in the malls. … We’ll see what comes of that. … As it relates to the U.S., the retailer doing the best is the one that is multi-channel—he’s got a catalog, e-commerce and bricks-and-mortar. … There are retailers using spaces as showrooms. That argues for smaller stores. … (With some retailers) you can buy things on the Internet and pick it up at stores. … That’s what the mall is. It constantly changes. It constantly churns. … If you come with a view that all forms of retail ought to be in the mall, it gives you a whole other data point.

4:54: Stefanek: (In response to its disposition strategy on the U.S. properties the firm is marketing.) Most likely, this is it. If we sell 15, that leaves us with 40. … It’s a good portfolio. There’s plenty of demand. We can’t sit here and say we’re going to sell next year. I don’t know where markets are going to be. … I can’t tell you how it’s pricing, but if we didn’t think it was going well, we would have stopped it.

Session ends.

NAREIT REIT Week Live Blog: Acadia Realty Trust

Kenneth Bernstein, president & CEO, and Jon Grisham, senior vice president and chief accounting officer, are presenting for Acadia Realty Trust at NAREIT’s REIT Week.

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Below are notes from the session.

3:48: Bernstein: From a product perspective, we tend to own retail and urban mixed-use in higher barrier to entry metropolitan markets—Washington, D.C. through Boston corridor and assets in Chicago. About one-third are urban mixed-use. One-third are supermarket-anchored. And one-third are discount or value. As we think about, “how are we going to grow,” there are a host of challenges—the issues of technology, the issues of multichannel retailing—the goal is to own the best retail real estate in the markets in which we operate. … The way we fuel this growth is … both from the lease-up and re-anchoring of our existing assets. … We will recapture underutilized anchor space and re-tenant it. We have done that over the past 12 years at very attractive leasing spreads.

3:50: Bernstein: Adding core assets to our wholly-owned portfolio. Selling assets that are not consistent with our strategy. … More importantly, adding assets to our core portfolio. … Our goal is to add $100 million in assets to our core. That’s not a game-changer. But it will provide increased stability and enable us to take our portfolio to the next level.

3:53: Bernstein: The other way we drive growth is through our series of funds, which is the vehicle we use to invest opportunistically, either value-add, new development or acquisitions. … We did not see as many distressed sellers as we thought we would. … But we seeing opportunities at the … street retail redevelopment area. We’ve made four investments and street retail has been the largest component of that. … We are vacating buildings and retenanting. For example we have 2 million square feet of urban developments in New York City. … Another interesting play out there is buying well-located properties that are anchored by troubled supermarkets. … The supermarket industry is going through its fair share of challenges. … That doesn’t mean that the location isn’t high quality. … We’ve done two of those transactions.

3:59: Bernstein: (In response to question about RECon.) First of all, Las Vegas and the ICSC and the dialogue that occurs with the tenants has changed. It’s less about specific negotiations—although we spend time trying to get them focused on the projects we’re thinking about. It’s really more about where is there business going and where is our business going? … They are not talking about the latest jobs reports. They are thinking one, two, three, five years out. … We should not be in denial about the Internet as well. There are going to be factors how books are sold. But it’s also going to impact how a bunch of other retailers are selling their merchandise. … For the most part, our tenants have completed the distressed negotiating cycle. There was that lovely period of time and you’d see your telephone list and it was your tenants and they wanted rent reductions, reliefs and a whole bunch of things we preferred not to face. I don’t think our leasing people had any of those types of meetings. … It doesn’t feel nearly as adversarial or distressed as it was.

4:09: Bernstein: (In response to question about downsizing of larger tenants.) It is across the board. You’re hearing it from the department stores. You’re reading about it and how they’re using technology to improve distribution and improve the point-of-sale. … So whether we think of retailers immediately exposed to e-commerce or those that feel more e-commerce resistance, what retailers are saying is that they are thinking about their existing stores—in terms of size and location. … There’s something about the brand that gets better by having the bricks and mortar. … Retail as a brand. Retail a flagship. Retail as fulfillment—pick-up, drop-off, showroom, warehouse. … In terms of shrinking footprints, it’s going to vary. … The big-box power centers are now going to have to rationalize. … The truth is we don’t know what it’s going to look like five years ago.

4:11: Bernstein: As our occupancy gets better along with housing, jobs and GDP, counter to that will be a rationalization of real estate. … But in spite of that, there are spaces with record high rents. Good luck finding distressed real estate on Madison Avenue. … There will be haves and there will be have-nots. Our job as a landlord is to keep moving into the haves.

4:15: Bernstein: In the good old days, we’d make open bids to take back space. … Crisis hits and we announce two major reanchorings and we announced they were all pre-leased. … It was a riskier time. The list of retailers will a lot shorter. … Now in the last earnings call we announced we bought back one of our A&Ps. … Now we probably have to take that lease-up risk, but we’ll do it when we are more confident.

Session ends.

NAREIT REIT Week Live Blog: Vornado Realty Trust

Michael Fascitelli, president & CEO, Wendy Silverstein, executive vice president & co-head of acquisitions and capital markets, and Joseph Macnow, executive vice president finance and administration & CFO, are presenting for Vornado Realty Trust at NAREIT’s REIT Week.

Refresh page for updates.

Below are notes from the session.

3:07: Fascitelli: (In response to a question about the firm’s balance sheet and its positioning for acquisitions.) The idea was to have the liquidity for attractive deals. … The problem is that the acquisitions market is not giving good deals at killer distressed pricing in Washington, D.C. and New York. … If you own $30 billion in those markets, that’s good. … Through the entire crisis our cashflow didn’t go down. We took losses on development and mezz positions. … The stock price was gyrating all over the place, but the cashflow was stable. … We’re looking for returns well above our cost of capital with reasonable underwriting assumptions. … New York has recovered ahead of the underwriting assumptions, quite frankly. And Washington never slowed down. … We continue look for deals we can get in through the back door or some complexity or some seat at the table. We haven’t seen that yet.

3:09: Fascitelli: We’ve identified three other areas we’d go – Boston (in spite of negative press around stopping the Filene’s project) . We are in San Francisco. We’d go to Los Angeles. We aren’t going to go anywhere else for office. … Retail might be slightly more flexible. … But again, we have a very fine screen for where we will invest capital and we don’t intend to change that screen.

3:11: Silverstein: The most significant difference in the last 60 days are that large loans and CMBS are now available. …That coupled with the insurance company market and the bank market makes me feel that the (improvement in the investment sales market) will continue.

3:20: Macnow: One reason why our development may not seem as apparent is because much of our development pipeline is income-producing property today. Crystal City is almost 8 millions square feet of income-producing property. Hotel Pennsylvania is income-producing property. … Much of our development pipeline doesn’t cost us while we wait for it to ripen up.

3:25: Fascitelli: People say that some of our retail investments were off the fairway. We disagree with that. It is a core competency starting back with Alexander’s. Retailers tend to be the target because their real estate is well located. It can be used for other users. … We’ve routinely tracked stocks where the real estate value is above the stock value. … The frustration is that it doesn’t always lead to the real estate. … We’re happy not to liquidate. In general the idea is to identify mispriced real estate and to redirect that to highest and best use. … We think that’s one of our core competencies. I can’t think of deal we’ve made in retail space that didn’t make money. … The activity is focused on where there is great real estate that is undervalued.

Had some connectivity issues this session so missed some comments.

Session ends.