Sanity Being Restored?

After yesterday’s carnage in retail REIT stocks, things are looking much better this morning. The losses have only been partially restored, but at least every firm is regaining ground.

sanity_restored

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Dramatic Buying Opportunity for REIT Stocks?

SNL Financial just posted a piece illustrating how dramatic the stock price fall was for REITs relative to the underlying property values of those firm’s assets.

It seems, in part, REITs get treated like financial stocks in moments such as this, which is why REIT shares have fallen even by an even greater magnitude than broader indices.

However, if SNL’s NAV estimates are accurate, there are now some huge opportunities here to buy REIT shares at a discount.

According to SNL, “All U.S. REITs fell to a discount to NAV of 22.62% as of Aug. 8 from a premium of 1.4% as of July 29.”

Check the chart:

11580897

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Free Falling

As expected, markets are continuing to tank in the wake of Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the United States credit rating.

Retail REITs are not immune from this. In fact, at a quick glance they appear to be doing worse than some of the broader indices. Regional mall REITs are leading the way down with General Growth, PREIT, CBL having the worst days so far.

blood_bath

Update 4:54 PM

Things didn’t get any better in the last hour the market was opened. Here’s the final carnage:

bloodbath_update

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Discounts Drive July Same-Store Sales Gains

July same-store sales rose by more than 4.0 percent year-over-year as retailers kicked off the back-to-school season. Most attributed the gains to discounts and the warmest July weather in many years.

Warehouse clubs Costco and BJ’s and luxury chain Saks posted some of the biggest gains, highlighting the bifurcation in the consumer-driven U.S. economy. Department store and other retailers that cater to the middle were among those that disappointed.

“The folks that are doing well economically are going to continue to spend at a pretty good clip, and the families that have less means are going to continue to pick and choose and only spend on what they need versus what they want,” said Alison Paul, leader of advisory firm Deloitte’s U.S. retail practice.

The July figures made some chains, such as Target Corp, optimistic about demand heading into the back-to-school season, the second-biggest selling period of the year after Christmas.

“Back-to-school sales are off to a solid start, contributing to our confidence in the strategies we have in place and our ability to execute them,” Target Chief Executive Officer Gregg Steinhafel said on Thursday.

Despite the numbers, as I’ve written in other monthly roundups, it’s important that we remember that the pool of retailers that still report same-store sales numbers is considerably smaller than it once was. Less than 30 retailers use the metric (down from more than 70 a few years ago). Wal-Mart stores, which singlehandedly accounts for roughly 5 percent to 6 percent of the overall retail pie, only reports quarterly figures today. And it has reported comparable store sales declines (excluding fuel sales) for eight straight quarters.

Were they still in the monthly matrix, the figures would look quite a bit different.

My look inside the monthly reports is after the jump. Read the rest of this entry »

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Back to the Future?

Retail industry insiders are noticing an unexpected shift: smaller, independent booksellers have begun to prosper now that the big-box operators are struggling. An article in Fortune makes the case that some of the Waldenbooks spaces could be backfilled by the independents.

The mom-and-pop operators would also make a good fit for college campus Borders, helping both bridge the gap in bricks-and-mortar bookselling and provide laid off Borders staffers with potential new jobs.

In fact, we hear that independent booksellers do seem to be making a comeback. Booksellers now frequently become “incubator” tenants at malls and shopping centers, according to executives with Levin Management Corp., a third party property management provider. And because of their smaller inventory and often niche offering, they are able to find more success with shoppers than the sprawling mega-boxes that can feel overwhelming, notes Jeff Green, a retail real estate consultant.

We’d be curious to know what the property owners and managers out there think. Are independent bookstores the way of the future?

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Now You See it, Now You Don’t–Borders Deal Falls Through

As Borders announced its liquidation early last week, reports surfaced that Books-a-Million, a rival bricks-and-mortar book seller, wanted to purchase up to 35 of its remaining stores.

The deal would have helped to cut down the amount of space Borders is about to dump on the market and saved some of its landlords the headache of searching for an alternate tenant.

Unfortunately, the deal is now off, according to a report in The Detroit News.

The two booksellers apparently couldn’t come to an agreement before Borders’ going-out-of-business sale began last week.

“We worked exhaustively in an effort to acquire these stores and reach agreements with all of the parties whose consent was necessary,” Books-A-Million CEO Clyde B. Anderson said in a statement late Monday. “Unfortunately, we were unsuccessful.”

The nixed sale won’t necessarily stop Books-a-Million from leasing former Borders locations directly from their landlords. For example, Cafaro Company, an Ohio-based privately held mall owner, has just signed a deal with Books-a-Million to go into eight of its malls independelty of the Books-a-Million/Borders negotiations, according to a release the firm sent out this week.

The stores range from 2,300 to 20,000 square feet and include locations in Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Iowa. Books-a-Million plans to open at Cafaro’s properties in the fall.

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Everybody’s Lovin’ Dunkin’

Investors are showing a great deal of confidence in Dunkin’ Brands and its potential for growth. Yesterday, the firm, currently owned by the private equity consortium of Bain Capital Partners, Carlyle Group and THL Partners, filed for its long-awaited IPO.

Even in a market that hasn’t favored public offerings, Dunkin’s owners were able to price the coffee chain/ice cream shop operator at $19 per share, above the expected range and the offering is already oversubscribed, at 22.25 million shares.

Dunkin’s main appeal lies in the fact that the chain has yet to create a sizable presence on the West Coast of the United States. In recent years, as consumers have become more price-conscious, Dunkin’ made significant headway in its competition with Starbucks for the top spot in the U.S. coffee wars. But it has no presence in states like California and Washington, which remain Starbucks’ territory–at least for now.

According to an analyst quoted in the New York Times story:

“Part of the attraction of Dunkin’ Donuts is that there is significant opportunity for store openings,” said Bart Glenn, an analyst with D. A. Davidson & Company who also covers Starbucks, a Dunkin’ rival. “Dunkin’ has broad customer appeal, and they’ve done a good job of delivering high quality coffee.”

Update:

Dunkin’ shares are now trading at $25 apiece.

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

CoStar’s CCRSI Index Posts an Increase in Retail Sales

costar_7142011_index
CoStar released the latest results from its Commercial Repeat Sale Index (CCRSI), which shows that May was a very good month for commercial investment sales transactions.

Overall sale pair dollar volume rose 150 percent year-over-year, with retail sales increasing 23 percent. The index tracks repeat sales of properties as a base. In May, CoStar recorded 829 repeat sale transactions. (You can find the methodology for CoStar’s Index here).

Investment grade property sales volume also continued to rise significantly in May 2011 increasing more than 191 percent on a year-over-year basis. As a result, investment grade sales volume comprised 79. percent of total May sales volume, up substantially from 61.9 percent in April 2011.

Average deal sizes also continue to rise. According to CoStar, the average investment grade deal size in May 2011 was $33.2 million, nearly double the April 2011 average transaction size of $16.9 million. The average dollar size for the general index was $1.7 million in May 2011 as compared to the average April 2011
transaction size of $1.65 million.

costar_retail_7142011_index

What’s more, only 26.7 percent of retail sales pairs recorded in May were distressed.

As a result of improving market conditions, CoStar’s CCRSI Index rose 1.6 percent in May, though it is still 34.4 percent below its peak, recorded in August 2007.

The improvement in the investment sales market for commercial properties is largely due to where we are in the real estate cycle, according to Chris Macke, CoStar’s senior real estate strategist. According to a presentation he gave this afternoon:

There are a number of transactions out there where people are making some great buys and people are making some great sales. Timing is just as critical as [location].

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

Liquidation Threat for Borders?

When Borders filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, few people expected it to survive long-term, but the chain might be gone faster than most suspected.

Yesterday, Borders’ unsecured creditors’ committee declined to make Najafi Companies, owner of Book-of-the-Month Club, as Borders’ stalking-horse bidder. The creditors were apparently worried that Najafi was going to buy the chain on the cheap and then liquidate it without any benefit to them.

The firm was offering about $215 million for the company, plus assumption of about $220 million in debt.

What’s worse, as of today, the only other entity known to have expressed interest in buying Borders has been a partnership between the Gordon Brothers Group and Hilco. Both of those firms specialize in liquidation rather than keeping companies as operating concerns. The rejection of Najafi means that when Borders starts its court-appointed auction on July 19, Gordon Brothers and Hilco will be the preferred bidders.

Below is an outtake from an internal memo sent by Borders president Mike Edwards:

Under the previously announced sale process, Borders had two alternate options for a Stalking Horse bidder: the Najafi proposal, or a group including Hilco and Gordon Brothers, who would purchase the store assets of the business and undertake an orderly wind-down. Late this afternoon, Najafi informed us that they have decided to withdraw as the stalking horse proposal, and therefore we will submit the Hilco and Gordon Brothers proposal to the Court for the purposes of serving as the Stalking Horse bidder at the auction next week.

While we regret Najafi’s withdrawal as the Stalking Horse bidder, we remain hopeful that they or other potential bidders who are interested in operating Borders as a going concern will choose to participate in the auction process on July 19.

If Borders liquidates in the next few months, it will deliver a serious blow to power center landlords, who have not yet completely recovered from the bankruptcies of Circuit City and Linens ‘n Things two years earlier.

Today, Borders operates 399 stores. Some of those are in great locations and might be snapped up by other retailers. But there are still few tenants in the market looking to take large chunks of space and the liquidation will likely lead to an uptick in loan defaults for some owners.

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication

More on Apple’s Power

Just in time to give more credence to the idea that mall landlords should give Apple stores anchor status, new research claims the chain accounted for an astounding one-fifth of all sales growth by U.S. publicly traded retailers in the first three months of the year.

According to a story in USA Today, Apple’s sales rose 80 percent year-over-year during the period from January through March, or by $4.6 billion, and they will likely keep that pace for the foreseeable future.

Apple sales are rising sharply outside the U.S. as well. In the Asia-Pacific region, sales rose 151% to $4.7 billion in the quarter that ended March 26. Europe sales were up 49% to $6 billion.

Analysts expect Apple’s sales to keep growing at a double-digit pace for the next few years. Morningstar analyst Joseph Beaulieu thinks Apple can achieve a 20% average revenue growth rate for the next five years, even without the introduction of new products.

Meanwhile, Apple seems to be exploring a new expansion strategy that could potentially pay off in spades. So far, the chain has mainly taken locations on high streets in major cities and in class-A malls. Now, Apple appears to be in discussion with at least two universities to operate within campus bookstores.

Earlier this year, Apple has been rumored to negotiate a deal with Yale University to occupy a former Barnes & Noble space there. Now, it might be looking to execute similar leases with Fairfield University in Connecticut and the University of Delaware.

It’s unclear at this point whether Apple wants to simply take over vacant university bookstore spaces or operate stores-within-stores with university booksellers or both. The deals in Connecticut and Delaware seem to involve taking space within an operating bookstore. Either way, given the multitudes of college campuses in the U.S. and Apple’s popularity with the college crowd, this might lead to dozens, if not hundreds, new Apple locations.

Digg Syndication Del.icio.us Syndication Google Syndication MyYahoo Syndication Reddit Syndication